Market internals for the indices are strong into early next week, explains Trevor Smith.
A pullback attempt will likely follow the current, continuing upside trade effort. Some Dow components, financials, and certain consumer spending indicators are slightly weak. Indices should bi-directional moves with moderate trending character into next week; pivots-based, inside-range breakout potential exists.
Like the indices, the euro (futures) have bullish candlesticks/technicals on lower time frames with bearish elements in higher time frames. Some traders consider the US indices and euro to be the same trade or strongly correlated at least after considering Thursday’s low-reversal rally.
Last week’s article statement that “VIX futures support a sudden intraweek bear move,” and that “world markets show negative understudy divergences” accurately predicted two indices pullbacks. Last week’s Japanese yen futures range projections were neutral-bullish with a “strong & weeklong breakout-style trade” character. The resulting price move traded from .009440-.009577. Eight of 10 ranges printed as of Thursday afternoon with other ranges extremely close (calculations were made from the September S&P futures contract last Thursday (December contract roll this week) whose 3428 highs would’ve been the eighth range touched).
Next Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3410-3390; Low Range 3327-3310
Neutral-bullish ranges/opinion based on moving average supports. Trade idea: sell put spreads if outright bullish due to collect premium from volatility.
Japanese Yen
High Range 9595-9576; Low Range 9514-9495
Neutral-bearish ranges based on understudy oscillators; extreme prior wide-range move up.
Euro FX
High Range 1.193-1.189; Low Range 1.177-1.174
Neutral-bullish ranges based on recent wide range move, hammer candlestick daily chart. Weekly chart inverted hammer candle bearish into Oct.
Gold
High Range $1983-$1965; Low Range $1935-1922
Neutral-bearish ranges from viewing weekly & monthly charts
Crude Oil
High Range $4181-4138; Low Range $3981-3920
Neutral-bearish range; Q3-4 bullish targets at $51 for fall.
Last Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3458-3428; Low Range 3320-3290
Bearish weekly highs due to internals, monthly chart; VIX futures support a sudden intraweek bear move between Fridays for S&P 500 low reversal rally reset; 3400 to print before weekly lows.
Actual: 3419-3296 (December contract); 3428-3312 (September contract)
Japanese Yen
High Range 9471-9441; Low range 9397-9371
Neutral-bullish ranges (moving average support); strong & weeklong breakout-style trade expectation from pivots, compressed ranges
Actual: 9577-9421
Euro FX
High Range 1.192-1.187; Low Range 1.179-1.174
Neutral ranges; bullish daily chart. Trending breakout-style trading based on pivots. Weekly chart inverted hammer candle bearish into Oct.
Actual: 1.192-1.175
Gold
High Range $1994-$1981; Low Range $1940-$1920
Neutral-bearish ranges (opinion from gap-up on daily chart set to regular trading hours), bullish weekly & bearish monthly charts
Actual: $1983-1938
Crude Oil
High Range $39.69-38.75; Low Range $36.45-35.07
Actual: $41.22-36.67
Note: Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view “Trevor’s Trading” here.
