Biotechs have been in a three-steps-forward, two-steps-back uptrend since early summer, and Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) continues to look like a leader in the space, both technically and fundamentally, suggests growth stock specialist Mike Cintolo, editor of Cabot Top Ten Trader.
The story here is all about Ingrezza, which is a treatment for a rare side effect of antipsychotic drugs that causes involuntary movements in the face and body that obviously have a negative psychological impact (being self-conscious) and sometimes can become permanent without treatment.
While rare, the drug is a big seller, with an expected $1.4 billion of revenue this year, up 30%-ish from last year, and more important, management sees a ton of opportunity just in its core area, with more than a half million undiagnosed patients in the U.S. alone (it thinks only 15% are both diagnosed and on treatment), so the potential is there for Ingrezza sales to easily more than double over time.
Neurocrine also has another niche product likely to hit the market soon — it’s applied for approval of valbenazine (likely approval early next year), which treats another disease that causes involuntary movements (side effect of Huntington’s) that affects maybe 25,000 people.
Those two should keep the numbers kiting higher, with analysts seeing the top line rising 20% next year while earnings reach nearly $4 per share — all while the firm’s excellent pipeline (12 mid- to late-stage programs in trials; a key Phase II readout for a child epilepsy treatment due by year-end, with two more Phase II results in other drugs next year) continues to progress.
The stock actually broke out in the summer, held the breakout level during the market’s autumn plunge and has kicked into gear as the market has bounced. We think the stage is set for medicals and biotechs to help lead the next advance and NBIX looks like one of the top dogs in that group.
