Not Quite Time for Gold to Shine
After rising for 12 consecutive years, gold hit a speed bump in late 2012 and has yet to recover. Andy Waldock of Commodity & Derivative Advisors examines its short-term prospects and details how he’s trading in the current range.
The gold market is still looking for support since reaching a high near $1,800 per ounce in early October. The market had fallen by nearly $200 per ounce as recently as early this month. Fiscal cliff issues, as well as tax and estate laws fueled some of the selling. However, commercial traders were the dominant sellers above $1,700 per ounce as they sold off their summer purchases made below $1,600. I believe the gold market has one more sell-off left in it before it can turn higher with any sustainability.
Comparatively speaking, gold held its own against the Dow in 2012 with both of them registering gains around 7% for the year. However, the more nimble companies of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq soundly trounced the returns of each, registering gains of 13% and 16%, respectively. The relative advantage of gold in uncertain times may be running its course. There currently is no inflation to worry about and CEOs are learning how to increase productivity to compensate for increased legislative costs. Finally, the S&P has risen by about 19% over the last 10 years while gold has rallied by more than 250%. Therefore, sideways market action in gold over the last couple of years seems justified.
Meanwhile, seasonal and fundamental support for gold hasn’t provided much of a kick over the last two months.