View from London: Euro/Yen Among Currency Trading Puzzles


Robert Savage Image Robert Savage Partner & CEO, CCTrack Solutions

The break of 110 in USD/JPY leaves the 130 break looking more interesting in the cross and suggests 127.50 is the next big level to watch – an indicator of the path chose by investors, writes Bob Savage, CEO of Track Research in Wednesday commentary from London.

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The war of words from US President Trump’s vow of “fire and fury” if North Korea made new threats led to Kim Jong Un to say he was considering a strike on the U.S. island of Guam. The bluff of war is being called.

This isn’t just about a day of risk-off trading as about the path choices for investors in the weeks ahead. Perhaps we are bitcoin traders now facing a fork in the road – cash or futures.

Or perhaps we are more logically in a fight or flight mode.

Much of the summer trading time has been spent by analysts breaking down the market into bulls and bears with the “overvaluation” arguments becoming intense despite great 2Q earnings for equities, despite no clear inflation signals for bonds and despite dwindling inventories for commodities.

Now is the time for those that have learned the lessons of the last 7-years – buy-every-dip – to consider whether this time is different.

War with the US/North Korea has become a distinct possibility. Safe-havens are in vogue with moves in Japanese yen (JPY/USD), Swiss franc (CHF/USD) and Gold being notable.

This isn’t a black swan but a known unknown and something that has been brewing since the unsteady armistice from July 27, 1953.

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