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Video View from Toronto: Global Risk Sentiment This Week

11/15/2017 12:00 pm EST


Ziad Jasani

Managing Director and Partner, Independent Investor Institute

Global risk sentiment I see in the short-term: defensive asset classes relatively cheaper awaiting bond yields to be lifted this week, writes Ziad Jasani of the Independent Investor Institute.

Global Risk Sentiment
Long-Term (1st column chart) Equities & Bonds present as expensive, driven by nearly a decade of money printing and “market stimulation” by central banks.

Short-To-Mid-Term (3rd column) Defensive asset classes (below the S&P 500 line) present as relatively cheaper, but awaiting swing-highs on bond yields this week to be uplifted.

Higher risk asset classes (above the S&P 500 line) present largely as scattered.

Areas of opportunity short-term are the Eurozone Financials (EUFN), Low Vol (SPLV), Nasdaq (QQQ), EFEA (EFA), Euro Stoxx 50 (FEZ), EEM, PFF, LQD, TLT, XBB-T, FXY and GLD/SLV.

Overall configuration of the global risk-ladder is tilted to risk-off, where-if the S&P 500 is unable to sustain above 2,590 into week’s end we would look to close short-term positions. 

And if we see higher risk assets getting further overvalued into week’s end, we would suggest not to chase the move, but rather sell-into-price strength.

We are in risk reduction mode, awaiting a -1% to -3% drawdown globally.


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