My conclusion that it will likely take several more months until we are able to resurrect a strong bullish break-out set up in this complex, writes Avi Gilburt, technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net.
The question in the headline is one of the most frequent comments I have been getting of late. And, the answer is quite simple: They are not doing anything right now. In fact, if you look at the charts, we have been in the same general region for several months.
You see, many of you really don’t want an update to know what I really think about the complex. Rather, many of you want an update to either soothe your emotions about the market or to provide some confirmation bias for you. It has become purely emotional for you, so you feel the need to constantly deal with your emotions.
This is what I warn about so often. If you need constant soothing, then you are likely too heavily weighted in the complex. And, if we do get further downside, as I think we will in many of the miners we track, it will lead you to more emotional outbursts.
As markets are driven by emotion, your job is to learn how to rise above that emotion. As one of our more astute members, Roy Prasad, stated quite eloquently and accurately: “The goal of EW analysis is to analyze sentiment, not participate in it!”
While we caught the low late last year in the metals and miners, as we did in late 2015 as well, the market provided us with several set-ups to break out in 2017. And, when it invalidated the last potential immediate set-up in September, you should have prepared your account, as well as your emotional state, for the potential that it can take us into 2018 until another break out set-up emerges.
As for my perspective of the complex, I am sorry to say that not a lot has really changed. Yes, that means it can either go up or down, and it likely will. (smile). This is likely corrective action we are dealing with right now, and it likely means that we should expect more whipsaw in the coming months.
But, we did get some movement in silver, and I would like to give you a little update on that chart. Clearly, the market chose the downside before any further update. Currently, I am counting this decline as the c-wave in a y-wave of a (b) wave. Yes, that places it in a complex correction, but what else would you expect from a chart that has basically been going sideways for two months?
However, I do have to modify the support I have for this count. The y-wave would be equal to 1.382 the size of the x wave in the 16.25 region. So, I can view this as a (b) wave within a b-wave as long as we hold over that level. This c-wave is still going to need a 4th and 5th wave, which provides us with some positive divergence in the 144-minute MACD, to make this a much higher probability. As it is, the market has provided us with many possibilities on this chart, so I would want to see that set up to make this a much higher probability in my mind.
Alternatively, should we break below 16.25, the 15.60 region is where we would have another level of support for what I would count as a bigger a-wave of wave (2). As you can see, I am trying to maintain the more immediate bullish count with this being part of the machinations within a wave (2). However, should we see a break of the 15.60 region, that could open the door to a drop into a 14 handle. For now, I am going to maintain the more bullish wave (2) corrective count, as long as we remain over support.
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Meanwhile, the SPDR Gold Shares Fund (GLD) has remained in a month-long uptrend channel, as you can see from the attached 8-minute chart. There is no discernable wave structure I can make out from this, but it is quite possible that it may maintain this channel all the way up to the 126 region for a larger b-wave rally. Without a clearly discernable pattern, the only thing upon which I can rely is the trend channel, which will likely be tested with one more drop.
As far as the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is concerned, I have to still maintain the bigger picture. As long as the blue support box is held as support – over the 21 region – then the yellow count can be maintained as an alternative. However, if we are going to see a strong break of the 21 region of support, it clearly will open the trap door down to the 17-19 region in the GDX.
This brings me back to the Barrick Gold (ABX). As I have noted before, it seems stuck in between two counts, with the question being whether wave iii has ended. Without the market being able to at least strike the resistance overhead, I have to assume that wave iii may still take us down to the 13 region, which would then set up a wave iv back to resistance.
I want to highlight again the significant positive divergences evident on this daily chart. This is the stuff of which major bottoms are struck. So, while I can maintain an “ideal” wave structure still calling for a iii-iv-v to complete in the coming months, I want you to be well aware that when the upside finally gets ignited, the set up is quite similar to expect what we saw in early 2016. So, while my ideal structure still calls for more downside on this chart, as a long-term investor with a horizon of more than a few months, it would be hard to maintain a strong bearish bias when I see divergences like this.
As you can see, there is really no clear micro-path provided in the charts we follow. While I have attempted to provide you some insight as to what I think is the most likely scenarios over the coming weeks, I have to note that I don’t see anything that is a high probability set up before me, as I write this Nov. 29. Ultimately, this leads me to retain my conclusion that it will likely take several more months until we are able to resurrect a strong bullish break-out set up in this complex.
See charts illustrating the wave counts on the GDX, GLD & Silver (YI).
