Four international economic reports may shape trading Thursday and Friday. Expectations for global markets from Ziad Jasani of the Independent Investor Institute.
What’s in-store for this week?
With the congressional conference committees working to make tax reform a reality, a risk-on start to the week in North America is expected. Will it last? Should we be buying or sharpening our “shorting/selling-knives”?
As we move into Thursday, (Dec. 7) and Friday the major macro-forces will likely be about:
• How dovish or hawkish Super-Mario-Draghi will be at 11 am (EST) Dec. 7 in his speech? (We think he’ll be dovish – good for equities – but the charts are set up for a disappointment = EUR ↑, USD ↓, Equities ↓)
• How strong or weak Japanese GDP prints 7 pm (EST) Dec. 7 (We think it beats = YEN ↑)
• Whether China’s trade balance implies more or less money printing - overnight Dec. 7 (We think China will have to print more money.)
• How strong U.S. average hourly earnings and jobs print (Topline jobs report meets forecast 200K, bottom line misses forecast of +0.3%).
Here’s how we see this week ending on Friday, Dec. 8:
• S&P 500 < 2,650 but > 2,600
• NASDAQ < 6,800 but > 6,718
• DOW < 24,200
• RUSSELL < 1,520 but > 1,493
• TSX < 16,131 but > 15,850
• VIX > 11
• USD ↓ (UUP) | $CAD (FXC) ↓ | YEN (FXY) ↑ | EUR (FXE) ↑ | GBP (FXB) ↔↓ | SWISSY (FXF) ↔↑
• US Treasury yields ↓
• Bonds ↑
• Oil ↓ < $57
• Gold ↑ > $1,280
• Sentiment: risk-off.
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