View from Toronto: 4 Economic Barometers for Global Traders This Week

12/06/2017 6:00 am EST

Focus: MARKETS

Ziad Jasani

Managing Director and Partner, Independent Investor Institute

Four international economic reports may shape trading Thursday and Friday. Expectations for global markets from Ziad Jasani of the Independent Investor Institute.

What’s in-store for this week?

With the congressional conference committees working to make tax reform a reality, a risk-on start to the week in North America is expected. Will it last? Should we be buying or sharpening our “shorting/selling-knives”?

As we move into Thursday, (Dec. 7) and Friday  the major macro-forces will likely be about:

• How dovish or hawkish Super-Mario-Draghi will be at 11 am (EST) Dec. 7 in his speech? (We think he’ll be dovish – good for equities – but the charts are set up for a disappointment = EUR ↑, USD ↓, Equities ↓)
• How strong or weak Japanese GDP prints 7 pm (EST) Dec. 7 (We think it beats = YEN ↑)
• Whether China’s trade balance implies more or less money printing - overnight Dec. 7 (We think China will have to print more money.)
• How strong U.S. average hourly earnings and jobs print (Topline jobs report meets forecast 200K, bottom line misses forecast of +0.3%).

Here’s how we see this week ending on Friday, Dec. 8:

• S&P 500 < 2,650 but > 2,600
• NASDAQ < 6,800 but > 6,718
• DOW < 24,200
• RUSSELL < 1,520 but > 1,493
• TSX < 16,131 but > 15,850
• VIX > 11
• USD ↓ (UUP) | $CAD (FXC) ↓ | YEN (FXY) ↑ | EUR (FXE) ↑ | GBP (FXB) ↔↓ | SWISSY (FXF) ↔↑
• US Treasury yields ↓
• Bonds ↑
• Oil ↓ < $57
• Gold ↑ > $1,280
• Sentiment: risk-off.

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