The drop in European growth momentum puts focus on ECB and Draghi to talk his way back to butterflies and whatever it takes to support the growth out of debt and doubt from ugly politics. The euro (EUR/USD) in play and 1.2240 into the focus on the day, says Bob Savage.
We are in the month-end unwind stage for trading – welcome also to Maundy Thursday, the Holy Thursday before Easter.
Holidays, quarter-ends and geopolitics slosh together and require a good foot washing before we can end the week and month.
The price action is wandering and focus on risks has dwindled leaving most content to wait it out to Monday. The news flow overnight revolved around the usual – joy in North Korea talking, hope for UK/Irish deals on borders and Brexit, less fear that U.S./China trade devolves into a war.
The economic data remains less sanguine with China debt rising, with German flash CPI lower than expected, with the Swiss KoF lower – all continue to point to risk about 2018 growth.
The confidence game for markets is not going well and the 1Q end tomorrow will be the pain trade that makes 2Q look for a resurrection – something that rests on rates and central bankers to perform with forex as the chaser.
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