Mexico will be the real focus ahead with NAFTA deal hopes high and the Mexican peso (MXN) already up 0.6% to 18.79 ahead of the U.S. open, writes Bob Savage Monday. The risk for today is in the ability for Turkey to hold the line on the Turkish lira (TRY).
The markets rallied after FOMC Chair Powell comments Friday and the bulls continue to run today in equities. There is an LSD feel to today – Last Summer Day – as it’s the UK August Bank Holiday and many trading desks are slowly repopulating.
The review of the summer will come later but for now we have to remember the time. This gets us to the childhood game of “What’s the time, Mr. Wolf?” played by English colonies the world over – and in the U.S. the wolf is replaced by a fox.
Perhaps this is the right angle for understanding today and its limited impact on the bigger stories ahead – there is a tag-you-are-the-wolf quality to markets now.
The tag in forex is Turkish lira (TRY) as it returns from holiday off 3% to 6.20 its safety breakout zone while the winner so far is South Korean won (KRW) up 0.5% with the break of the neckline U.S. dollar (USD) support at 1115 opening 1110 targets.
Reuters: S&P, Nasdaq hit records Monday as Wall Street rises on NAFTA optimism.
For equities, it’s Italy as the FTSE MIB there falls 0.3% amidst the drama of the EU budget with Deputy PM Di Maio threatening a veto.
For Asia, the focus was on China and its adding back of the counter-cyclical factor for fixing the Chinese yuan (CNY) which led to its early gains, helping the markets there, but not sustaining into Europe.
Iron Ore is the focus for commodities – dropping 2% and reflecting the growth doubts about China.
When you mix this all together the cycle of where global growth is looks murky and the extension of the “Goldilocks” rally that returned Friday with Powell seems more fairytale than reality.
The risk for today is in the ability for Turkey to hold the line on the TRY without going to capital controls. The shock of that would lead to another round of bank jitters and EM contagion plays. Watching for a dip back to 6 to prove the point with risk that 4-5-6 lead to 7 next.
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