Bill Baruch, president and founder of Blue Line Futures, previews E-mini S&P, Gold, Crude, and Treasury markets and today’s economic report calendar. Follow his reports Monday-Friday on MoneyShow.com and short Midday Markets video.
E-mini S&P (December)
Last week’s close: Settled at 2894, down 13.75 on Friday and down 25.00 on the week.
Fundamentals: Global equity markets are pointing lower this morning. On the heels of what was a tumultuous week, China came back from the Golden Week holiday and hit the exit button; the Shanghai Composite is down 3.7% this morning. Italy is back in the news and dragging down Europe; the German DAX is down 0.8%. Major U.S benchmarks have retreated from Friday’s bump up into the close.
China’s central bank is fighting fears by reducing the reserve requirement ratio for the fourth time this year, this is the amount of money banks must hold on hand. While this will go into effect October 15, looser policy has been expected which also means the returns from such moves should diminish. The Chinese yuan (CNY) fell to the weakest level against the U.S. dollar (USD) since August 13 when it was testing the weakest level since January 2017.
There is no data on the U.S economic calendar today. German Industrial Production earlier this morning missed largely. We took a look at the week ahead in Sunday’s Tradable Events this Week, click the link to be directed.
Technicals: Friday’s late recovery ran into first key resistance early last night at 2898.25-2900. This morning we are watching the pivot at 2890.25-2894 most closely, below here will leave the bears squarely in the driver’s seat. However, the market will remain vulnerable to waves of selling until a close back above major three-star resistance at ...
Crude Oil (November)
Last week’s close: Settled at 74.34, down 0.01 on Friday and up 1.09 on the week.
Fundamentals: Crude Oil posted a strong week but did soften in the latter half as a bearish inventory report weighed on sentiment. The market also felt pressures due to jawboning from Saudi Arabia and Russia who are again promising to add production. Still, Iranian exports are dropping, and the market remains not only elevated but longer-term bullish due to this until Saudi Arabia and Russia can show the additional production. OPEC releases their Monthly Report on Thursday and the IEA releases theirs on Friday. Lastly, commodity prices in general have started the week off on bad footing with the Chinese yuan falling to a near two-month low against the dollar.
Technicals: Crude Oil settled right at our pivot on Friday but once it slipped through Friday’s low of 73.83, the selling picked up. This is exactly why we have been cautious and Neutral in Bias over the last few sessions. Major three-star support comes in at ...
Gold (December)
Last week’s close: Settled at 1205.6 up 4.0 on Friday and up 9.4 on the week.
Fundamentals: Gold is getting hit this morning and back down to 1190. This is not a delayed reaction to Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll report but instead two other catalysts lifting the dollar. First, the Chinese yuan is up 1% as they come back from their Golden Week holiday and loosened policy to combat the Shanghai Composite falling 3.7%. Second, the euro (EUR) is down half a penny with Italian drama back in the news. There is no data on the U.S calendar today. Please read our Tradable Events this Week to see what is on our radar as the week unfolds.
Technicals: Price action failed once again at the 1210.7-1212.3 level early last night. This led to a failure below 1201.6 and opened the door to strong waves of selling this morning as Gold is back to testing major three-star support at ...
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Bill Baruch's FX Rundown for Oct. 2-3: Euro bottoms. Yen listless. Aussie subdued. CAD eyes rally.
View a short video: Bill Baruch: Trading Futures. Gold, USD, yuan.
Recorded: TradersExpo Chicago July 24, 2018.
Duration: 4:34.
