We are almost at the weekend. We almost have headlines for an EU/UK Brexit deal. We almost have a deal between U.S. and Turkey over Pastor Brunson. We almost are sure that the U.S. won’t list China a currency manipulator and so trigger more sanctions/tariffs, says Bob Savage.
We almost have a convincing calm back in equities after a week-long rout.
The phrase “almost” is in the same category as “hope” to wizened traders.
This isn’t a strategy, process or something to trust. Close doesn’t count, but in a world of fake-news, or one where journalists go missing. There are a few items to support the mood swing in risk overnight that aren’t qualitative:
1) ECB Draghi still sees need for significant monetary policy stimulus. Read as easy policy despite QE tapering. This along with his concern about global headwinds supports risk.
2) China trade shows no signs of trouble from U.S. trade war. The trade surplus grows to $31.7bn more than expected even with imports up 11.9% m/m after -3% m/m, exports up 9.8% m/m after -2.6% m/m.
3) Eurozone industrial production was better. This bounce back in August from July puts the idea of a bigger slowdown to rest.
As for trading markets today – the 3Q earnings are a key focus and driver with JPM Chase (JPM) out and shares higher. The hope for stability in markets helps drive today but the biggest place to watch is still in Emerging Markets.
The hype around Turkey over the summer given U.S. economic pressures is important and the recovery in the Turkish lira (TRY) significant but perhaps not sufficient. A break of 5.68 would be needed today to convince the market that inflation, bad government policy and a seemingly lost central bank can be overlooked for a test of 5.25 – where the U.S. dollar (USD) uptrend should hold.
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