Chinese Yuan, New Zealand Dollar the Winners Today, Euro in Play

10/16/2018 11:44 am EST

Focus: FOREX

Robert Savage

Partner & CEO, CCTrack Solutions

For the money, Chinese yuan (CNY) and New Zealand dollar (NZD) may be the ones that matter but the mood for more noise is wrapped around the EUR with the risk of 1.14 still lingering while 1.18 seems more a ceiling if we see it again soon, writes Bob Savage Tuesday.

On the margin, mood for risk-taking is better today. Some see this stability as emanating from the Chinese yuan holding a dull range (fixed at the best level in three weeks) and not rocketing through 7 despite weaker equities and lower rates. Some see it in the benign Chinese PPI-CPI combination that supports margins that shows no real impact on inflation from the weaker CNY or trade tariffs.

Others see risk coming back with the normalization of correlations, in the return of bonds offsetting stocks, as oil prices steady and as the forex markets return to real rate watching. Overnight economic data clearly mattered – with New Zealand dollar the winner in the G10 space up 0.35% - as CPI surprised to the upside but volatility didn’t follow.

On the negative side, the euro (EUR) is lower barely, mostly thanks to the weaker German ZEW and ignoring the noise over the Italian budget law approval and the relief rally in BTPs.

UK Brexit talks and deadlines loom but main focus remains on the politics after it all with British pound (GBP) higher today but on the 2-day window stuck in a range. The markets are searching for some marginal good news in the U.S. to support this rally back up in equities with no on particularly excited about trading. S&P 500 (SPX).

All that suggests trouble remains in store for those facing margin calls in equities.

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