If the S&P 500 (SPY) is able get and hold above $273.29 (~2,737 S&P 500 Index) odds would suggest the bounce continues up towards 2,785-2,765 (200-DMA). However, if the S&P 500 remains below 2,737 a retest of 2,685 (-1.4%) is likely, writes Ziad Jasani with a video.
View my weekly strategy session video here.
Recorded: Nov. 2, 2018.
Duration: 2:06:14.
Closing posture last week ending Nov. 2 suggested we are still in a fragile bounce. In the scenario the bounce continues Hold-To-Buy-Lines are provided at a sector level below; if the bounce fails (i.e. S&P 500 < 2,685), Sell-Lines have been provided.
The key sectors we continue to focus on to play the bounce are: Technology, Materials, Miners, Energy, Bio-Tech, Discretionaries, REITs and Small Caps (IWM).
If we break below 2,685 and especially 2,656 this week we are open to playing short/inverse (SH, SDS, DOG, DXD, PSQ, SQQQ) with expectations for the S&P 500 to re-test support between 2,604-2,575 (-4% to -5% away).
• Materials (XLB, GDX, SIL, XME) o XLB: Hold > $53.52 | Hold-To-Buy $53.52 | Sell-Line: $53.52 o XME: Hold-To-Buy > $31.37 | Sell-Line: $31.37 o GDX: Hold-To-Buy > $19.41| Sell-Line: $18.96 o SIL: Hold-To-Buy > $23.84 | Sell-Line: $23.84 & $23.26
• Industrials (XLI, DIA) o XLI: Hold > $70.81 | Hold-To-Buy > $71.54 | Sell-Line: $69.88 o DIA: Hold > $250.41 | Hold-To-Buy > $254.00 | Sell-Line: $250.41 • Staples (XLP) o XLP: Hold > $54.85 | Hold-To-Buy > $55.31 | Sell-Line: $54.14
• Financials (XLF, KBE, KRE, KIE) o XLF: Hold > $26.19 | Hold-To-Buy > $26.73 | Sell-Line: $26.19 o KBE: Hold > $43.13 | Hold-To-Buy > $43.13| Sell-Line: $43.13 o KRE: Hold > $54.56 | Hold-To-Buy > $55.70| Sell-Line: $54.56 o KIE: Hold > $29.85 | Hold-To-Buy > $30.29 | Sell-Line: $29.85
• Healthcare (XLV, XBI, IBB, XPH, XHE) o XLV: Hold > $88.86 | | Hold-To-Buy > $ 89.94 | Sell-Line: $88.86 o XPH: Hold > $43.53 | Hold-To-Buy > $44.54 |Sell-Line: $43.53 o XBI: Hold > $83.26 |Hold-To-Buy > $83.97| Sell-Line: $83.20 o XHE: Hold > $77.35 | Hold-To-Buy > $79.32 | Sell-Line: $77.35 o IBB: Hold > $107.00 | Hold-To-Buy > $108.91 | Sell-Line: $107.00
Sector and weights
• Discretionaries (XLY, XHB, XRT) o XLY: Hold > $107.16 | Hold-To-Buy > $108.39| Sell-Line: $106.11 o XHB: Hold > $34.00 | Hold-To-Buy > $35.60 | Sell-Line: $34.00 o XRT: Hold > $47.49 | Hold-To-Buy > $47.49 | Sell-Line: $47.49
• REITs (XLRE, VNQ) o VNQ: Hold-To-Buy > $77.43 | Sell-Line: $77.43 o XLRE: Hold-To-Buy > $31.64 | Sell-Line: $31.64 • Utilities (XLU) o XLU: Hold > $52.65 | Hold-To-Buy > $53.91| Sell-Line: < $52.65
• Technology (QQQ, XLK, IYW, FNG) o QQQ: Hold > $169.28 | Hold-To-Buy > $170.98 | Sell-Line: $167.30 o XLK: Hold > $68.76 | Hold-To-Buy > $69.91 | Sell: $68.76 o IYW: Hold > $176.40 | Hold-To-Buy > $176.40 | Sell: $176.40 o FNG: Hold > $18.80 | Hold-To-Buy > $18.80| Sell: $18.26
• Energy (XLE, XOP, RYE, XES) o XLE: Hold-To-Buy >$66.56 | Sell-Line: $66.56 & $64.67 o XOP: Hold > $36.08| Hold-To-Buy > $36.96 | Sell-Line: $36.08 o RYE: Hold > $52.27 | Hold-To-Buy > $53.60 | Sell-Line: $52.28 & $51.25 o XES: Hold > $13.35 | Hold-To-Buy > $14.28 | Sell-Line: $13.35
• Telecom (IYZ) o IYZ: Hold > $28.10 |Hold-To-Buy $28.54 | Sell-Line $28.10
