Currency update from Bill Baruch, President of BlueLineFutures.com.

Euro (ESM)

Session close: Settled at 1.1229, up 28 ticks

Fundamentals: The euro continued to dig out of the lowest level since June 2017 as traders eye a deluge of information this week. TheU.S. Dollar Index surged higher by 1% last week ahead of the first look at U.S Q1 GDP. Despite a blowout headline number of 3.2%, the dollar lost ground on Friday due to bloated inventories boosting the results. In Sunday’s Tradable Events this Week, we take a look at GDP and this week’s upcoming events. Today, a slew of sentiment reads from the Eurozone were overall mixed and U.S PCE inflation data was soft at 1.6% versus 1.7%. This is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator and certainly does not provide them any reason to alter their dovish path. However, Consumer Spending surged by 0.9%, the most since 2009.

Technicals: After selling off into May of last year, Friday was the fourth significant lower low made by the euro. This does not mean a low is in and the trend is undoubtedly still negative. In fact, only a close out above 1.13855-1.1400 will break a down channel from the high in January. We will now have major three-star resistance at 1.12455-1.12695 and the Euro is considered to be in a breakdown while below here.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 1.12455-1.12695***, 1.1298**, 1.1332**, 1.1362-1.13855***

Support: 1.11565-1.11845***, 1.1000***

Japanese yen (JYM)

Session close: Settled at .89805, down 10 ticks

Fundamentals: The yen found its footing in the second half of the session as equity markets came in a bit. Overall, it wasn’t a great session considering the dollar weakness, but it certainly was a solid session given that gold and Treasuries both lost at least 0.5% and major equity benchmarks set new record highs.

Technicals: This was the third consecutive session with a higher low, it is beginning to feel that the near-term downside has been exhausted. Furthermore, major three-star support at .8919-.8931 held perfectly. First key resistance comes in now at .8998-.9013 and a move out above there should garner a tailwind to .90585-.90695.

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Resistance: .8998-.9013**, .90585-.90695**, .9109-.9130**, 91815***

Support: .8919-8931***, .88355**, .87675***

Aussie dollar (ADM)

Session close: Settled at .7065, up 17 ticks

Fundamentals: The Aussie failed at major three-star resistance on April 17 and has since as much as 3%. With the U.S Dollar Index consolidating lower, the Aussie has been able to recover a bit ahead of an all or nothing data point for the currency tonight. China is Australia’s number one trade partner and the near-term direction relies solely on those Manufacturing reads at 8:00 and 8:45 pm CT. Also, Australian Private Sector Credit is due at 8:30 pm CT.

Technicals: We defined the range of the Aussie with our major three-star resistance and support levels last week as both held perfectly. So where to now? We are outright neutral as this bounce will be put through the fundamental wringer tonight, but also faces major three-star resistance at .7080, a crucial level because while below here the Aussie remains immediate-term vulnerable to additional waves of selling.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: .7080***, .7106*, .7132**, .7217-.7224***, .7307***

Support: .7006-.7014***, .6825-.6861***

Canadian (CDM)

Session close: Settled at .7445, up 7.5 ticks

Fundamentals: The Canadian dollar has recovered on U.S dollar weakness but now faces a fundamental gauntlet from Chinese Manufacturing data tonight, Canadian GDP tomorrow at 7:30 am CT and Crude Oil as it clings to a trend line from December. Not to mention the Federal Reserve policy announcement Wednesday.

Technicals: Price action overshot major three-star support but did barely settle below there before stringing together three higher lows in a row. We remain slightly bearish, but traders need to have capitalized on this downswing in one manner or another. Major three-star resistance is directly overhead at .7458 and a close above there will neutralize this downtrend.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: .7458***, .7491-.7509**, .7544-7564**, .7600-.7630***

Support: .7427-.7443***, .7330-.7347***

Bill Baruch provides technical levels on all markets throughout the week at BlueLineFutures.com