Grains are More Volatile as Weather Markets Take Hold

07/18/2019 2:14 pm EST

Focus: COMMODITIES

Oliver Sloup

, Blue Line Futures

The markets continue to trade off of the ever-changing weather forecasts, keeping volatility alive, writes Oliver Sloup.

Corn (ZCZ)

Yesterday’s Close: December corn futures finished yesterday’s session down 1.25¢, trading in a range of 9.75¢. Funds were estimated sellers of 6,000 contracts.

Fundamentals: The markets continue to trade off of the ever-changing weather forecasts, keeping volatility alive. Both the bulls and bears will have days of vindication in the coming weeks and months. Though we are off of the highs from Monday morning, we are still near unchanged from last week, before we got the bearish U.S. Department of Agriculture report. Yesterday’s weekly EIA ethanol report showed ethanol production at 1,066,000 barrels per day, up 19,000 from the previous week. Export Sales this morning came in at 333 metric tons, within the range of expectations.

Technicals: The market held technical support on Tuesday and failed against resistance yesterday, bring prices right back down to our support pocket.

Soybeans (ZSX)

Yesterday’s Close: November soybean futures finished yesterday’s session down 5.5¢, trading in a range of 13¢. Funds were estimated sellers of 5,000 contracts.

Fundamentals: Soybean futures continue to soften on lack of friendly news. Weather concerns have been alleviated for some areas, as rain clouds start to pop up in areas that need it. Trade talks with China are still at a standstill and there’s a growing concern that this feud could change the demand landscape for good. Export sales this morning came in at 326,300 metric tons, within the range of expectations.

Technicals: In our Monday morning report we noted that: $9.15 is a pivot point for us, a break below here opens the door for a run lower.

Wheat (ZWU)

Yesterday’s Close: September wheat futures finished yesterday’s session down 2.25¢, trading in a range of 12¢. Funds were estimated sellers of 3,000 contracts.

Fundamentals: Export sales this morning came in at 347,300 metric tons, within the range of expectations. Harvest pressure coupled with looming supply/demand concerns has kept the bears in total control and keeps us bearish.

Technicals: The head and shoulders pattern cemented from Monday’s reversal continues to keep the bears in control.

Oliver Sloup provides technical levels on all markets throughout the week at BlueLineFutures.com.

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