Major Market Ranges For Week of Dec. 29: Bears Encircle S&P, Gold Highs

12/30/2019 9:55 am EST

Focus: TECHNICAL

Trevor Smith

Commodity Trading Advisor, www.trevorsmithfnp.com

This week’s market range predictions from Trevor Smith.

Daily charts of S&P 500 futures and the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) show inverted hammer and hammer candlestick trade signals, respectively.   

In this closing week, seven of 10 projected weekly ranges printed as of Friday night with other range projections close; the crude oil short call spread did precede the underlying’s trade under the $60 strike in a winning direction on Friday.

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges

E-mini S&P 500

High Range 3270-3251; Low Range 3222-3210 (3060 outlier)
Buy weekly 3240/35 put spread on candlestick signal, Implied Volatility%, range midpoint, one standard deviation moves to target: 3215; trade small size

Japanese Yen

High Range 9202-9187; Low Range 9164-9148 
No official trade. 9175 is the weekly pivot and >current price, so a countertrend bounce long call spread could be a quick trade; or, join narrow-range trending pivot math if a profitable wave 3 down breaks out

Euro FX

High Range 1.130-1.124; Low Range 1.121-1.118
No official weekly trade, but breakout closure >50-week moving average is bullish toward next higher moving average cluster (1.135) considering Feb. expiration options

Gold
High Range $1531-$1522; Low Range $1504-$1495
In sideways-reversals weekly range math, sell a $1520/25 weekly call spread near coming highs down to the one standard deviation target & weekly pivot. If price gets/hovers there at the 20-week moving average $1,498 will provide support.

Crude Oil
High Range $63.12-$62.01; Low Range $60.87-$60.10
No trade. Weekly pivot/range midpoint are lower, $61.15, if a short call spread begs, but monthly chart’s bull kicker candle over the 20-month moving average implies $65/barrel above with monthly-chart professional participants!

(Note: This article is published mid-day on Fridays and focuses on weekly options expiring the following Friday but may include monthly options or 2-week calendar/diagonal option spreads at times. I consider my week’s range accuracy from Fri. a.m. publishing until next Fri. a.m. as Trevor’s week for purposes of being aligned with potential weekly option trades placed Fri-Tue.

Last Week’s Predicted-Versus-Actual Ranges:

E-mini S&P 500
High Range: 3245-3220; Low Range 3190-3174 (3060 outlier)
Actual: 3254-3208

Japanese Yen
High Range 9229-9213; Low Range 9168-9152
Actual: 9199-9161

Euro FX
High Range 1.125-1.119; Low Range 1.113-1.110
Actual: 1.124-1.113

Gold
High Range $1499-$1490; Low Range -$1477-$1469
Actual: $1519-$1479

Crude Oil
High Range $6214-$6102; Low Range —$6012-$5948
Actual: $6197-$6002

See More analysis from Trevor here

Note: Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.

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