Early-month math predicts trending breakouts for many world markets, reports Trevor Smith of Trevor Trading.

Market internals/technical indicators for world indices continue in strength, although bearish price moves are likely. Appearing mixed in directional tendencies, currencies, crude oil, and gold may take directional courses upon news releases. Statistically, the currencies and S&P futures should make the widest breakout price moves, while gold is likely to print a softer relative trending-breakout range. My range extrema are less accurate in October’s market conditions (pivot math).

Note to readers: Due to Covid-19 and other factors beyond anyone’s control, this article’s publishing frequency is now bi-weekly (every other week); forecasting models/trading will use monthly-expiration options and weekly options. This offers traders more continuity, accuracy, and time-frame choices. With Monday publishing, my week’s predicted ranges now cover Monday-Friday. 

Last week’s article noted the euro’s technical chart foreshadowing of a “bullish low reversal,” while also mentioning the bearish monthly chart. Key breakout/breakdown levels for this closing week were accurate; gold’s $1,928/ounce overhead target was attempted up to $1,923.60, while the crude oil $40.80 breakout level was the exact downward-reversal number whose failure created a potential trade that exceeded the projected $38.40 possible breakdown price. Nine of 10 ranges printed as of Sunday.  

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges (Sunday Night)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3415-3393; Low Range 3308-3291
Neutral ranges/opinion based on bullish internals, bearish technical understudies

Japanese Yen
High Range 9545-9515; Low Range 9470-9445
Neutral-bearish ranges based on moving higher time frames. Breakdown level at .009459. to .009445 zone derived from three-day chart

Euro FX
High Range 1.179-1.176; Low Range 1.169-1.166
Neutral-bullish ranges based on two-day chart’s weak doji breakout higher

Gold
High Range $1931-$1917; Low Range $1894-1875 
Neutral-bullish ranges two-day chart, with bearish monthly chart candlestick short trade signal down to $1,775/ounce target. Trade idea: short call spread/monthly options (disclosure: I am placing this trade after publishing)

Crude Oil
High Range $4118-4075; Low Range $3965-3917
Neutral-mixed directional range skew; Breakout trade wave-three up at $40.80, 41.52; $38.91 breakdowns may print $38.40; traders can narrow my widened low range if bullish. Pivots support.  

Last Week’s Predicted Ranges (Sunday Night)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3332 3305; Low Range 3224-3206
Neutral-bullish ranges/opinion based on internals, multiday ranges & monthly pivot reversal supports. Trade idea: sell put spreads if outright bullish to collect premium from volatility.
Actual: 3388-3206

Japanese Yen
High Range 9569-9535; Low Range 9463-9445
Neutral-bullish ranges based on moving average support. Breakout trade likely (Daily chart). Wave-three break level higher at .9514 (4-hr) to week’s highs; two-day chart bear target below at .9471, .9461
Actual: 9536-9459

Euro FX
High Range 1.183-1.177; Low Range 1.164-1.159
Neutral-bullish ranges based on monthly reversal pivot & moving average support. Daily chart bullish 1.172 break level, higher frames are bearish.
Actual: 1.178-1.163

Gold
High Range $1918-$1899; Low Range $1848-1833 
Neutral-bullish ranges from both reversal monthly pivot supports and candlesticks passing through successive time frames $1928 target derived from daily chart Bollinger Band midpoint; bearish weekly & monthly charts persist.
Actual: $1,923.60-1,851

Crude Oil
High Range $3950-3849; Low Range $3679-3600
Neutral-bearish directional range skew; Breakout reversal trade wave-three up at $37.79 to $38.47 level possible. Countertrade sees forceful two-day chart breakdown continuation
Actual:  $4080-$3663

Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view “Trevor’s Trading” here.