US benchmarks were pointing higher today just ahead of the bell. This comes on the heels of yesterday’s healthy pullback, which followed fresh record highs earlier in the session, states Bill Baruch of Blue Line Futures.
E-mini S&P (June) / NQ (June)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4118, down 14.75
NQ, yesterday’s close:Settled at 13,798.75, down 177
Fundamentals: Amid a very mixed day, it was Energy that led, gaining 2.9%. Stability across Industrials and Materials allowed for the Dow and Russell 2000 to outperform. Today will be guided early by a deluge of economic data. Retail Sales, NY Empire State Manufacturing, Philly Fed Manufacturing, and Weekly Jobless Claims are all due. Industrial Production will be released and will be followed by a lineup of Fed speakers through the afternoon. Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks, as well as San Francisco Fed President Daly and Cleveland Fed President Mester. The calendar does not let up after the close. Tonight we look to a data dump out of China at 9:00 pm CT; Q1 GDP, Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment, Retail Sales, and Unemployment.
Yesterday, Goldman Sachs reported record results and Wells Fargo topped estimates. Today, Bank of America kept the momentum going with an earnings beat. Citigroup, UnitedHealth, and PepsiCo are others due this morning.
The White House announced it will impose new sanctions on Russia as early as today. The move comes as a retaliation for disrupting the US election and the SolarWinds hack. The ruble lost as much as 2% to the US dollar, their sovereign debt has taken a hit, and the move is expected to encourage capital flight from Russia. The administration will also bar US banks from issuing Russian sovereign debt. The Kremlin has said a quick meeting between Putin and Biden is not possible. Traders should keep a pulse on continued developments.
Technicals: Yesterday, we raised some caution, believing the steadfast climb for both the S&P and NQ was due for some consolidation at minimum. The pullback was very constructive; the S&P quickly responded to major three-star support at 4113.75-4119.50 late in the session and the NQ to major three-star support at 13,792-13,829. The move allowed the market profile for each to refresh, which has led to renewed strength ahead of today’s bell. Price action is back above our momentum indicator for each; our Pivots at 4131 and 13,888. Steady action above here today is very bullish once again.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 4139.75**, 4152**, 4186***
Pivot: 4131
Support: 4127.50*, 4113.75-4119.50***, 4099.25-4101.25***, 4086.75**, 4067.25-4070***
NQ (June)
Resistance: 13,964***, 14,035***, 14,274-14,286****, 14,472-14,533***
Pivot: 13,888
Support: 13,772-13,829***, 13,732**, 13,655**, 13,564-13,604***
Crude Oil (June)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 63.22, up 2.98
Fundamentals: Crude oil posted its best session since November. A bullish EIA inventory report was the jumpstart this market needed, and the slipping Volatility Index (OVX) alluded to it ripening for a rally. Data from the EIA showed crude inventories fell by 5.889 mb and refinery utilization climbing by 1.0%, the fifth increase over the last six weeks. Furthermore, gasoline stock climbed less than expected at 0.309 mb versus 0.786 expected. Despite the Johnson & Johnson setback, a continued uptick of Covid cases in the US, and worsening conditions in some parts of the world, the fact is, spring is upon us and summer is around the corner. This means fuel demand will increase and American Airlines announced an expanded summer flying schedule. Data this morning further supports the rise in crude prices. Core Retails Sales for March climbed 8.4% MoM versus 5% expected, Initial Jobless Claims hit a pandemic low of 576,000 and both NY Empire State and Philly Fed Manufacturing also blew the doors off. Still, there are questions surrounding the impact of the sanctions the White House plans to impose on Russia, this could be why crude is underperforming this morning. A deluge of data from China tonight at 9:00 pm CT will also prove critical.
Technicals: Price action is consolidating back from a second failed attempt at major three-star resistance at 63.47. A pullback after gaining nearly 5% is not a concern, as long as it holds a constructive path. Our momentum indicator comes in at 62.61 and will provide a point of balance. First key support is the previous swing high of 62.25 and we must see previous major three-star resistance at 61.52-61.98 hold. We are more bullish on crude oil, now that it has broken out of its consolidation pattern and will look to pullbacks as a buying opportunity.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 63.47***, 64.16***, 64.96-65.20**
Pivot: 62.61
Support: 62.25**, 61.52-61.98***, 60.24**, 59.50-59.75***
Gold (June) / Silver (May)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1736.3, down 11.3
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 25.524, up 0.098
Fundamentals: Gold has rebounded from a disappointing session yesterday, where it failed again at strong resistance. Silver held ground though, and each are higher at the onset of US hours today. The White House is planning to impose sanctions on Russia as early as today. This, coupled with other geopolitical headwinds, have brought a supportive tailwind early. However, a strong set of economic data this morning is looking to erode the early bid. Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, NY and Philly Manufacturing all posted strong beats. Industrial Production data is coming up at 8:15 am CT. Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks at 10:30 am CT, San Francisco Fed President Daly at 1:00 pm CT, and Cleveland Fed President Mester is at 3:00 pm CT. Tonight, China releases a slew of economic data including GDP and Industrial Production. Overall, the rise in Treasuries coupled with a weakening US Dollar have been a tailwind to gold and silver, but they must clear crucial levels of technical resistance in order to begin repairing February’s damage.
Technicals:Price action in gold is testing a key level of technical resistance at 1746.7-1747.1 and has traded to a high of 1752.8. Silver, similarly, is trading into a thick area of technical resistance at 25.70-25.91. Each is trading out above our momentum indicator at 1741 and 25.50, acting as our Pivots and steady action above here will encourage spurts of buying. However, in the end, each must chew through such resistance and still not be in the clear, but higher highs become very important for the longer-term sustainability of this rebound.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 1746.7-1747.1**, 1756.1-1759.9***, 1778.4-1788****
Pivot: 1741
Support: 1732.3-1734.7**, 1728***, 1714.6-1719.1***, 1706***, 1695**, 1671-1680***
Silver (May)
Resistance: 25.70-25.91***, 26.14-26.35***, 26.89***
Pivot: 25.50
Support: 25.02-25.13**, 24.70-24.78***, 24.48*, 23.92-24.09***, 23.70**, 22.66***
Learn more about Bill Baruch at Blue Line Futures.
