Shorting the Softs, World Markets Come Off

The euro, wheat futures' sell signals may be tradeable, reports Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.

Wheat, corn, and soybean futures' two-day, three-day charts are giving bearish candlestick signals to traders that are progressing into weekly charts. Short-call spreads may offer a small-account way to trade it for those bold enough to trade against inflation and higher food prices. Similarly, though not a "soft" commodity, gold's quarterly/monthly charts also show bear candles. 

Even the euro, Japanese yen futures, and US Indices' futures charts are decorated with bear candles. Vanguard's Total World Stock Market ETF (VT) has a two-day chart bear candle that is, as-of-yet unsupported by volume. I expect a swing top/pullback somewhere near here in Indices' price/time-volume surge preferred.

My last article noted the corn market's strength both as biofuel and food before corn futures went limit up twice; it began gapping down thereafter. Weather/harvest news indicate sustained future demand for corn. Nine of 10 projected ranges printed as of May 1, 2021. 

Next Two Week’s Predicted Ranges (Written May 1, 2021)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4225-4201; Low Range 4166-4133
Bear-skewed range from two-day chart. Monthly Pivot 3904, Quarterly Pivot (Q1): 3575, Yearly Pivot: 3225;

Japanese Yen
High Range 9219-9172; Low Range 9115-9072
As anticipated, the Monthly Pivot was hit again. Yearly pivot .009498 printed and may pull price from above.

Euro FX
High Range 1.212-1.206; Low Range 1.199-1.194
Bearish ranges. Light short trade possible due to lack of momentum in sell signal. 1.198 Monthly Pivot Zone May 2021.

Gold
High Range $1794-$1781; Low Range $1767-1455

Neutral ranges, trending tendency. Moving average support higher time frames causes higher prices.

Of note, the 20-, 50-week moving averages crossed over bearishly, so the short-term countertrend reverse trade signal is bullish until the bearish quarterly chart assumes market control. I anticipate these price events, can't guarantee either. Expert wave traders/hedgers only on gold, unless willing to seek short trade until Fall 2021 with forceful stops runs against the trade until Q3,Q4 seasonality/religious/inflation gold buying. Yearly pivot: $1813 already printed but may pull from above, while the 20-quarter moving average at $1,447 pulls from below. 

Crude Oil
High Range $6546-6430; Low Range $6260-6184

Bearish range, trending tendency: An attempt by the monthly-chart bear candle to reach the yearly pivot: $40.19, as a sudden, sharp news-sparked price thrust down to a downwards-revised $46 that quickly recovers is possible now near a revised May 25 into June Fibonacci-calculation autotarget/time pivot. No guarantees of accuracy/prices, as it seems too strong for my $44/barrel dream image in which price was written on plexiglass over a physical barrel then put right in my face; June-Oct. make more technical timing sense on the monthly chart for it. $46 is the 20-month moving average (not $44). The monthly bear candle has an $11.73 range which, when subtracted from its low yields a $45.50 target. A stops run lower usually ensues $44+change). Experts/hedgers only here short until Fall 2021 against bullish supports (see Gold above).

Prior Predicted Ranges (Written April 19 for April 19-30, 2021)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4160-4145; Low Range 4074-4050

Bear-skewed range from two-day chart. Monthly Pivot 3904, Quarterly Pivot (Q1): 3575, Yearly Pivot: 3225;

Actual: 4,211-4,110

Japanese Yen
High Range 9340-9284; Low Range 9191-9177

Bullish ranges to extent I widened the high range a lot, because I don't know how far it can go. Option chains are no help by predicting narrow ranges in wide-range trends. As anticipated, the monthly pivot was hit again. Yearly pivot .009498 printed and may pull price from above.

Actual: .009308-.009145

Euro FX
High Range 1.215-1.205; Low Range 1.195-1.189

Neutral ranges with bullish continuation potential. Yearly pivot: 1.174 (now printed); traders traded toward 1.188 Monthly Pivot zone that printed.

Actual: 1.216-1.195

Gold
High Range $1820-$1793; Low Range $1757-1438

Neutral ranges. Moving average support higher time frames causes higher prices.

Of note, the 20-, 50-week moving averages crossed over bearishly, so the short-term countertrend reverse trade signal is bullish until the bearish quarterly chart assumes market control. I anticipate these price events, can't guarantee either. Expert wave traders/hedgers only on gold, unless willing to seek short trade until Fall 2021 with forceful stops runs against the trade until Q3,Q4 seasonality/religious/inflation gold buying. Yearly pivot: $1813 already printed but may pull from above, while the 20-quarter moving average at $1,447 pulls from below. 

Actual: $1,798-1,754

Crude Oil
High Range $6486-6346; Low Range $6115-6018

Bearish range: An attempt by the monthly-chart bear candle to reach the yearly pivot: $40.19, as a sudden, sharp news-sparked price thrust down to a downwards-revised $46 that quickly recovers is possible now near a revised May 25 into June Fibonacci-calculation autotarget/time pivot. No guarantees of accuracy/prices, as it seems too strong for my $44/barrel dream image in which price was written on plexiglass over a physical barrel then put right in my face; June-Oct. make more technical timing sense on the monthly chart for it. $46 is the 20-month moving average (not $44). The monthly bear candle has an $11.73 range which, when subtracted from its low yields a $45.50 target. A stop run lower usually ensues $44+change). Experts/hedgers only here short until Fall 2021 against bullish supports (see gold above).

Actual: $65.47-60.61

Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.