World markets are too high to buy, too strong to sell, but Bitcoin might be on lows, reports Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.
Unable to find directional signals on any time frames for my regular symbols, I revisited Bitcoin futures. I believe Bitcoin is close to swing lows on moving average supports near 33,500 and going higher in a short-term bounce is its path of least resistance. 41,800 is Bitcoin's Monthly Pivot for June, and its pull from above is my opinion supported by option chain skew.
Traders who believe Bitcoin futures might go sideways off the next imminent price downpush (indicated by Volume Spread Analysis) could sell a bullish-skewed iron condor spread using the July expiration with intent to profit from volatility collapse, time decay from 60 to 45 days until expiration at the longest conceivable trade duration, and price cooperation in a range between the strikes. This defined-risk trade does have higher-risk things that can go wrong.
Special Coverage: Bitcoin temporarily replaces Japanese yen futures in range predictions below.
My last article stated that, "wheat, corn, and soybean futures' two-day, three-day charts are giving bearish candlestick signals," prior to the symbols' price declines in unison. My statement about the possible tradeable status of the euro short-sell signals preceded a mere minor pullback before a price runup. Weather/harvest news indicate sustained future demand for corn. Nine of 10 projected ranges printed as of May 15, 2021; Crude oil lows were close at $0.31 cents/barrel above my projected low range's top end.
Next Two Week’s Predicted Ranges (Written June 1, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4238-4218; Low Range 4181-4156
Bear-skewed range. Monthly Pivot 4156, Quarterly Pivot (Q1): 3575, Yearly Pivot: 3225;
Bitcoin
High Range 42000-39500; Low Range 34650-30250
Bullish ranges in trending-sideways environment; 41815, June's Monthly Pivot pulls from above in my opinion.
Euro FX
High Range 1.230-1.224; Low Range 1.216-1.213
Bearish-skewed ranges. 1.215 Monthly Pivot Zone June 2021.
Gold
High Range $1957-$1932; Low Range $1899-1874
Neutral ranges, trending tendency. Moving average support higher time frames causes higher prices.
Of note, the 20-, 50-week moving averages crossed over bearishly, so the short-term countertrend reverse trade signal is bullish until the bearish quarterly chart assumes market control. I anticipate these price events, can't guarantee either. Expert wave traders/hedgers only on gold, unless willing to seek short trade until Fall 2021 with forceful stops runs against the trade until Q3,Q4 seasonality/religious/inflation gold buying. Yearly pivot: $1813 already printed but may pull from above, while the 20-quarter moving average at $1,447 pulls from below.
Crude Oil
High Range $6950-6841; Low Range $6659-6525
Neutral range: An attempt by the monthly-chart bear candle to reach the yearly pivot: $40.19, as a sudden, sharp news-sparked price thrust down to a downwards-revised $46 that quickly recovers is possible now near a revised May 25 into June Fibonacci-calculation autotarget/time pivot. No guarantees of accuracy/prices, as it seems too strong for my $44/barrel dream image in which price was written on plexiglass over a physical barrel then put right in my face; June-Oct. make more technical timing sense on the monthly chart for it. $47 is now the 20-month moving average (not $44). Experts/hedgers only here short until Fall 2021 against bullish supports (see Gold above).
Prior Predicted Ranges (Written May 1 for May 1-15, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4225-4201; Low Range 4166-4133
Bear-skewed range from two-day chart. Monthly Pivot 3904, Quarterly Pivot (Q1): 3575, Yearly Pivot: 3225;
Actual: 4238-4029
Japanese Yen
High Range 9219-9172; Low Range 9115-9072
As anticipated, the Monthly Pivot was hit again. Yearly pivot .009498 printed and may pull price from above.
Actual: 9232-9110
Euro FX
High Range 1.212-1.206; Low Range 1.199-1.194
Bearish ranges. Light short trade possible due to lack of momentum in sell signal. 1.198 Monthly Pivot Zone May 2021.
Actual: 1.218-1.199
Gold
High Range $1794-$1781; Low Range $1767-1455
Neutral ranges, trending tendency. Moving average support higher time frames causes higher prices.
Of note, the 20-, 50-week moving averages crossed over bearishly, so the short-term countertrend reverse trade signal is bullish until the bearish quarterly chart assumes market control. I anticipate these price events, can't guarantee either. Expert wave traders/hedgers only on gold, unless willing to seek short trade until Fall 2021 with forceful stops runs against the trade until Q3,Q4 seasonality/religious/inflation gold buying. Yearly pivot: $1813 already printed but may pull from above, while the 20-quarter moving average at $1,447 pulls from below.
Actual: $1,847-1,765
Crude Oil
High Range $6546-6430; Low Range $6260-6184
Bearish range, trending tendency: An attempt by the monthly-chart bear candle to reach the yearly pivot: $40.19, as a sudden, sharp news-sparked price thrust down to a downwards-revised $46 that quickly recovers is possible now near a revised May 25 into June Fibonacci-calculation autotarget/time pivot. No guarantees of accuracy/prices, as it seems too strong for my $44/barrel dream image in which price was written on plexiglass over a physical barrel then put right in my face; June-Oct. make more technical timing sense on the monthly chart for it. $46 is the 20-month moving average (not $44). The monthly bear candle has an $11.73 range which, when subtracted from its low yields a $45.50 target. Experts/hedgers are only here short until Fall 2021 against bullish supports (see Gold above).
Actual: $66.76-62.91
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.
