World markets are still high; soybeans, corn may be too high, as the world continues food re-pricing, reports Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.
Corn futures’ monthly chart is a bearish inside bar. If price starts undercutting $602/bushel, it could be a shortside trade via some short call spreads with September expirations. Other traders could consider selling soybeans whose similar charts are already demonstrating the ability to take out lows with room to fall in Bollinger Bands.
Because inflation risks exist for Q3-4, this commodity short trade is small-sized, short-term, and with nearby profit targets. Countertrend expectations for commodity prices to resume upwards trends near Q4 make this a counterintuitive chart setup- I trade what I see. In fact, traders should research successful inflation-era strategies, presuming that upcoming inflation will not be transitory.
To understand how history repeats itself in new, inventive ways, readers can do simple online searches to learn more about food insecurity, redistribution (2020 news), pricing fairness, and factors of world food riot history (1648, 1650, 1710, 1775, 1789, 1795, 1830, 1837, 1863, 1917-18, 1939. 1970, 1977, 1989, 2007-08, 2016-17), some associated with climatological or weather events. If there is a rhythmic pattern in the above dates, 6-18 months places food security as front and center news.
I have a hand-calculated June time pivot for unexpected news causing indices to pull back, potentially.
My last article headline was, Crypto on a Swing Low? Could Iron Condors Fly?, prior to Bitcoin futures entering and closing the two-week period in the middle of my projected range, thereby allowing an iron condor to profit from options time decay, volatility collapse, and rangebound price. It even flew the 15-day timeline or flight schedule I proposed. Nine of 10 projected ranges printed as of June 14, 2021.
Next Two Week’s Predicted Ranges (Written June 13, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4277-4260; Low Range 4215-4198
Slightly bear-skewed range. Monthly Pivot 4156, Quarterly Pivot (Q1): 3575, Yearly Pivot: 3225; Implied Volatility level near 8% supports buying a put spread if bearish for next two weeks
Bitcoin
High Range 44500-41190; Low Range 37800-35095
Bullish ranges in trending-sideways environment until monthly chart 3-wave pattern down activates, if it does; 41815, June's Monthly Pivot pulls from above in my opinion.
Euro FX
High Range 1.218-1.216; Low Range 1.211-1.207
Neutral-Bearish ranges. 1.215 Monthly Pivot June 2021 as support/resistance several times already.
Gold
High Range $1892-$1882; Low Range $1866-1854
Neutral-bearish ranges. Of note, the 20-, 50-week moving averages crossed over bearishly, so the short-term countertrend reverse trade signal is bullish until the bearish quarterly chart assumes market control. I anticipate these price events, can't guarantee either. Expert wave traders/hedgers only on gold, unless willing to seek short trade until Fall 2021 with forceful stops runs against the trade until Q3, Q4 seasonality/religious/inflation gold buying. Yearly pivot: $1813 already printed but may pull from above, while the 20-quarter moving average at $1,447 pulls from below.
Crude Oil
High Range $7213-6949; Low Range $6889-6762
Neutral range: An attempt by the monthly-chart bear candle to reach the yearly pivot: $40.19, as a sudden, sharp news-sparked price thrust down to a downwards-revised $46 that quickly recovers is possible now near a revised May 25 into June Fibonacci-calculation autotarget/time pivot. No guarantees of accuracy/prices, as it seems too strong for my $44/barrel dream image in which price was written on plexiglass over a physical barrel then put right in my face; June-Oct. make more technical timing sense on the monthly chart for it. $47 is now the 20-month moving average (not $44). Experts/hedgers only here short until Fall 2021 against bullish supports (see Gold above).
Prior Predicted Ranges (Written June 1 for June 1-15, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4238-4218; Low Range 4181-4156
Bear-skewed range. Monthly Pivot 4156, Quarterly Pivot (Q1): 3575, Yearly Pivot: 3225;
Actual: 4249-4165
Bitcoin
High Range 42000-39500; Low Range 34650-30250
Bullish ranges in trending-sideways environment; 41815, June's Monthly Pivot pulls from above in my opinion.
Actual: 41070-30915
Euro FX
High Range 1.230-1.224; Low Range 1.216-1.213
Bearish-skewed ranges. 1.215 Monthly Pivot Zone June 2021.
Actual: 1.225-1.210
Gold
High Range $1957-$1932; Low Range $1899-1874
Neutral ranges, trending tendency. Moving average support higher time frames causes higher prices.
Of note, the 20-, 50-week moving averages crossed over bearishly, so the short-term countertrend reverse trade signal is bullish until the bearish quarterly chart assumes market control. I anticipate these price events, can't guarantee either. Expert wave traders/hedgers only on gold, unless willing to seek short trade until Fall 2021 with forceful stops runs against the trade until Q3,Q4 seasonality/religious/inflation gold buying. Yearly pivot: $1813 already printed but may pull from above, while the 20-quarter moving average at $1,447 pulls from below.
Actual: $1,919-1,855
Crude Oil
High Range $6950-6841; Low Range $6659-6525
Neutral range: An attempt by the monthly-chart bear candle to reach the yearly pivot: $40.19, as a sudden, sharp news-sparked price thrust down to a downwards-revised $46 that quickly recovers is possible now near a revised May 25 into June Fibonacci-calculation autotarget/time pivot. No guarantees of accuracy/prices, as it seems too strong for my $44/barrel dream image in which price was written on plexiglass over a physical barrel then put right in my face; June-Oct. make more technical timing sense on the monthly chart for it. $47 is now the 20-month moving average (not $44). Experts/hedgers only here short until Fall 2021 against bullish supports (see Gold above).
Actual: $71.24-66.41
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.
