Stocks lurched Monday to fresh record highs. It wasn’t pretty, but there are no extra points for smoothness or style, notes Jon Markman of Pivotal Point.
The Nasdaq continued to outperform as strength for technology issues pushed the index to 14,174, a gain of 0.74%.
With tech now roaring higher and most cyclical issues deeply oversold, there is the potential for a blow-off rally toward 4,400 for the benchmark indexes. A simple recovery in banks, industrials, and energy could do the trick. That move could begin as early as Tuesday. There is support at 4,205.
Despite the overall gains, decliners outpaced advancers by a 4-3 margin and there were 668 new highs vs. just 35 new lows. Topping the new high list were our ASML Holdings, as well as Adobe, Philip Morris Intl, Blackstone, Edwards Lifesciences, and energy giant BP. Solid vanguard.
The two-day meeting of the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee will conclude Wednesday with the release of members' economic projections alongside the policy statement. The market's expectations are that the Fed will maintain its current pace of $120 billion in monthly asset purchases this week even if it delivers projections for interest-rate liftoff in 2023, Bloomberg reported, citing economists in its survey.
There are so many ways for investors to get this complicated sequencing wrong that there is ample opportunity for a one or two day nosedive. If that were to happen it would be a gift to bulls.
April and May saw a strong spike in the consumer price index in the US, with indicators in various other advanced economies also pointing in the same direction, BBVA Research said in a report. If elevated inflation persists it could force the Fed to raise interest rates earlier than planned, which could slow the economic recovery and send investors into a funk.
Median year-ahead inflation forecasts for the US jumped for the seventh month in a row to a new record of 4% in May, according to a report from Trading Economics.
The 10-year US Treasury yield rose 4 basis points to 1.50%. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures gained 0.3% to $71.12 per barrel.
Credit Suisse said the lower US oil production forecast in the US Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook last week, which represented the agency's third straight cut to its estimate, is likely still too high as producers continue to reinforce balance sheets at the expense of raising output.
Novavax (NVAX) shares slipped 1% after the company said its COVID-19 vaccine was 90% effective in warding off the disease and 100% effective at preventing its moderate and severe manifestations in a large-scale Phase 3 clinical study. Novavax said it plans to seek regulatory authorization for the vaccine in the third quarter. Moderna (MRNA), whose shares traded down 5.2%, said it's seeking authorization for use of its COVID-19 vaccine in adolescents in Switzerland.
Learn more about Jon Markman at Pivotal Point.