World markets still print highs; crude oil rejects highs, while small-cap value stocks make consecutive lower daily lows, reports Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.
Crude oil presents some alluring bear candles for a pullback, but any bear trades would need to be small, because this is a strong market. Indices’ technical charts are almost identical to crude oil, except stock futures have not had much throwback follow-through overall. The Russell 2000 Index daily chart shows an ability to take out lows in divergence against the S&P 500 futures, though. Will the Russell lead the markets lower or get back in line with the other stock groups?
My last article was about potential corn and soybeans short trades, and both markets went down. A market pullback in the indices did coincide with my “hand-calculated June time pivot for unexpected news causing indices to pull back, potentially.” The bearish put spread trade idea would have made a profit. Seven of 10 projected ranges printed as of June 30, 2021, with missed ranges being very close.
Next Two Week’s Predicted Ranges (Written July 3, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4368-4340; Low Range 4287-4260
Slightly bear-skewed range. Monthly Pivot 4238, Quarterly Pivot (Q1): 4184, Yearly Pivot: 3225; Implied Volatility level near 8% supports buying a put spread if bearish for next two weeks
High Range 38450-36800; Low Range 32200-31050
Bullish ranges in trending-sideways environment until monthly chart 3-wave pattern down continues, if it does; 34689, July’s Monthly Pivot already printed and price slides along it for second week.
High Range 1.194.189; Low Range 1.178-1.169
Neutral ranges. 1.199 Monthly Pivot pulls from overhead. My chart impression anticipates another set of lows that precede a low reversal back up, but that is a vague, multi-time frame opinion
High Range $1827-$1814; Low Range $1887-1875
Neutral ranges. Of note, the 20-, 50-week moving averages crossed over bearishly, so the short-term countertrend reverse trade signal is bullish until the bearish quarterly chart may assume control. Yearly pivot: $1813 is July’s pivot that has already printed but remains important.
High Range $7213-6949; Low Range $7195-7044
Bearish range: $70.03 is the 200-day moving average as one potential short trade target. An attempt by the monthly-chart bear candle to reach the yearly pivot: $40.19, as a sudden, sharp news-sparked price thrust down to $54-$46 that quickly recovers is possible. Experts/hedgers only here short until Fall 2021 against bullish supports like $70, the 200-month moving average.
Prior Predicted Ranges (Written June 13 for June 15-30, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4277-4260; Low Range 4215-4198
Slightly bear-skewed range. Monthly Pivot 4156, Quarterly Pivot (Q1): 3575, Yearly Pivot: 3225; Implied Volatility level near 8% supports buying a put spread if bearish for next two weeks.
High Range 44500-41190; Low Range 37800-35095
Bullish ranges in trending-sideways environment until monthly chart 3-wave pattern down activates, if it does; 41815, June's Monthly Pivot pulls from above in my opinion.
High Range 1.218-1.216; Low Range 1.211-1.207
Neutral-Bearish ranges. 1.215 Monthly Pivot June 2021 as support/resistance several times already.
High Range $1892-$1882; Low Range $1866-1854
Neutral-bearish ranges. Of note, the 20-, 50-week moving averages crossed over bearishly, so the short-term countertrend reverse trade signal is bullish until the bearish quarterly chart assumes market control. I anticipate these price events, can't guarantee either. Expert wave traders/hedgers only on gold, unless willing to seek short trade until fall 2021 with forceful stops runs against the trade until Q3, Q4 seasonality/religious/inflation gold buying. Yearly pivot: $1813 already printed but may pull from above, while the 20-quarter moving average at $1,447 pulls from below.
High Range $7213-6949; Low Range $6889-6762
Neutral range: An attempt by the monthly-chart bear candle to reach the yearly pivot: $40.19, as a sudden, sharp news-sparked price thrust down to a downwards-revised $46 that quickly recovers is possible now near a revised May 25 into June Fibonacci-calculation autotarget/time pivot. No guarantees of accuracy/prices, as it seems too strong for my $44/barrel dream image in which price was written on plexiglass over a physical barrel then put right in my face; June-Oct. make more technical timing sense on the monthly chart for it. $47 is now the 20-month moving average (not $44). Experts/hedgers only here short until Fall 2021 against bullish supports (see Gold above).
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.