World markets and crude oil print bear candlestick & down-up-down patterns, reports Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.
World indices’ daily charts show a basic, quick three-wave downside trade, so I consider a bounce up from technical supports a probable event that could continue into completion of a five-wave drop after an anticipated early-week rally.
Crude oil presents a more subtle three-wave bear scenario to traders. Monthly oil charts are extended and developing a bear candle over the 200-month moving average- the failure of which might lead to lower waves of price drops. Discussed in my prior columns, my original 20-month moving average target is now at $48/barrel—my dream about crude oil closed with a plexiglass square suspended over a barrel with $44 written by an invisible, red magic marker; that was the 20-month moving average price when I checked charts the next morning.
Due to higher time frame involvement, I believe the crude oil short trade to be more profitable by price change percentage. Recent crude oil rally strength makes this trade seem inane, or insane, so I would propose selling small-sized lots of call spreads with no more money at risk than one could throw away and not miss. It is potentially offering time decay profits and profitable exit points if price goes sideways, however.
My last article was an early forecast of current crude oil—almost to the penny (do not expect this regularly) and S&P 500 futures bearish charts. 9 of 10 projected ranges printed as of July18, 2021.
Next Two Week’s Predicted Ranges (Written July 18, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4358-4336; Low Range 4283-4275
Slightly bear-skewed range. Monthly Pivot 4238, Quarterly Pivot (Q1): 4184, Yearly Pivot: 3225; Implied Volatility level near 9% supports buying a put spread after a rally, if bearish for next two weeks
Bitcoin
High Range 34350-32890; Low Range 31300-29308
Bullish ranges until Monthly chart three-wave pattern down continues, if it does; 34689, July’s Monthly Pivot already printed. 50-week moving average support could create rally to 34689 noted above.
Euro FX
High Range 1.194.189; Low Range 1.192-1.187 1187-1177
Bullish ranges. 1.199 Monthly Pivot pulls from overhead. My chart impression anticipates a low reversal back up, but that is a vague, multi-time frame opinion
Gold
High Range $1843-$1828; Low Range $1809-1795
Neutral ranges. Trending weekly pivot math with moving-average support and overbought oscillators. Yearly pivot: $1813 is July’s pivot that has already printed but remains important as Sunday night price.
Crude Oil
High Range $7400-7215; Low Range $6993-6806
Bearish range with 50% reversal up target: “$70.03 is the 200-day moving average as one potential short trade target” that recently printed as predicted because I did not trade it. An attempt by the monthly-chart bear candle to reach the yearly pivot: $40.19, as a sudden, sharp news-sparked price thrust down to $54-$46 that quickly recovers is possible. Experts/hedgers only here short until fall 2021 against bullish supports.
Prior Predicted Ranges (Written July 3 for July 3-15, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4368-4340; Low Range 4287-4260
Slightly bear-skewed range. Monthly Pivot 4238, Quarterly Pivot (Q1): 4184, Yearly Pivot: 3225; Implied Volatility level near 8% supports buying a put spread if bearish for next two weeks.
Actual: 4384-4279
Bitcoin
High Range 38450-36800; Low Range 32200-31050
Bullish ranges in trending-sideways environment until Monthly chart three-wave pattern down continues, if it does; 34689, July’s Monthly Pivot already printed and price slides along it for second week.
Actual: 35995-30960
Euro FX
High Range 1.194-1.189; Low Range 1.178-1.169
Neutral ranges. 1.199 Monthly Pivot pulls from overhead. My chart impression anticipates another set of lows that precede a low reversal back up, but that is a vague, multi-time frame opinion
Actual: 1.191-1.178
Gold
High Range $1827-$1814; Low Range $1887-1875
Neutral ranges. Of note, the 20-, 50-week moving averages crossed over bearishly, so the short-term countertrend reverse trade signal is bullish until the bearish quarterly chart may assume control. Yearly pivot: $1813 is July’s pivot that has already printed but remains important.
Actual: 1835-1784
Crude Oil
High Range $7213-6949; Low Range $7195-7044
Bearish range: $70.03 is the 200-day moving average as one potential short trade target. An attempt by the monthly-chart bear candle to reach the yearly pivot: $40.19, as a sudden, sharp news-sparked price thrust down to $54-$46 that quickly recovers is possible. Experts/hedgers only here short until fall 2021 against bullish supports like $70, the 200-month moving average.
Actual: $76.98-70.16
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.
