World markets and Bitcoin set up for Q3-4 bear trades, while gold breaks out, asserts Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.
World indices’ still show downside Q3-Q4 trades in development, as does Bitcoin’s Quarterly chart. Opinion is based on technical studies. A perceived inflation trade happily resting on the 20-month, 20-week, and 20-day moving averages, gold may break out. Pivot math predicts a trending price move in the coming week.
I anticipate some technological breakthrough energy sector news in the next two-to-four weeks, but related ETF option chains do not show it. My dreamstate image sequences relate to discrete-unit energy storage and indescribable, futuristic applications, none of which may have a reality basis.
My last article was directional and stated that my euro “chart impression anticipates a low reversal back up, but that is a vague, multi-time frame opinion”—then it happened; “Bearish range” for crude oil, and that Bitcoin “support could create rally to 34689”, also worked out. 10 of 10 projected ranges printed as of July 30, 2021.
Next Two Week’s Predicted Ranges (Written July 31, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4329-4309; Low Range 4370-4357 (4339)
Slightly bear-skewed range. Monthly Pivot 43478, Quarterly Pivot (Q1): 4184, Yearly Pivot: 3225; August 3, 11-13 are time pivot and space weather dates for potential bearish price moves.
Bitcoin
High Range 43550-4221; Low Range 38200-36389
Bullish ranges until monthly chart 3-wave pattern down continues, if it does; 37587, August’s Monthly Pivot may drag price. 80-day moving average resistance at 42719.
Euro FX
High Range 1.197-1.193; Low Range 1.192-1.187 1184-1181
Bullish ranges. 1.185 Monthly Pivot pulls from underside.
Gold
High Range $1853-$1841; Low Range $1810-1804
Neutral-bearish ranges. Trending weekly pivot math with moving-average support. Yearly pivot: $1813 is near August’s $1807 pivot.
Crude Oil
High Range $7621-7477 Low Range $7138-6964
Pullback range; “$70.16 is the 200-day moving average as one potential short trade target” that recently printed as predicted because I did not trade it. An attempt by the monthly-chart bear candle to reach the yearly pivot: $40.19, as a sudden, sharp news-sparked price thrust down to $54-$46 that quickly recovers is possible.
Prior Predicted Ranges (Written July 18 for July 18-31, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4358-4336; Low Range 4283-4275
Slightly bear-skewed range. Monthly Pivot 4238, Quarterly Pivot (Q1): 4184, Yearly Pivot: 3225; Implied Volatility level near 9% supports buying a put spread after a rally, if bearish for next two weeks
Actual: 4,422-4,224
Bitcoin
High Range 34350-32890; Low Range 31300-29308
Bullish ranges until Monthly chart 3-wave pattern down continues, if it does; 34689, July’s Monthly Pivot already printed. 50-week moving average support could create rally to 34689 noted above.
Actual: 40,940-29,215
Euro FX
High Range 1.194.189; Low Range 1.192-1.187& 1187-1177
Bullish ranges. 1.199 Monthly Pivot pulls from overhead. My chart impression anticipates a low reversal back up, but that is a vague, multi-time frame opinion
Actual: 1.191-1.176
Gold
High Range $1843-$1828; Low Range $1809-1795
Neutral ranges. Trending weekly pivot math with moving-average support and overbought oscillators. Yearly pivot: $1813 is July’s pivot that has already printed but remains important as Sunday night price.
Actual: $1,837-1,799
Crude Oil
High Range $7400-7215; Low Range $6993-6806
Bearish range with 50% reversal up target: “$70.03 is the 200-day moving average as one potential short trade target” that recently printed as predicted because I did not trade it. An attempt by the monthly-chart bear candle to reach the yearly pivot: $40.19, as a sudden, sharp news-sparked price thrust down to $54-$46 that quickly recovers is possible. Experts/hedgers only here short until Fall 2021 against bullish supports.
Actual: $74.23-65.01
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.
