Yesterday morning, the USDA announced a flash sale of 458,600 metric tons to Mexico for the 2021/2022 marketing year (equivalent to 18,054,285 bushels), states Bill Baruch of Blue Line Futures.
Corn (December)
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly export inspections report came in at 724,784 metric tons, within the range of estimates. crop progress was out after the close, that showed good/excellent ratings at 60%, a 2% drop from the previous week. The average estimate was for a 1% decline. As mentioned last week, it’s that time of year where crop conditions become less and less meaningful each week.
Technicals: December corn futures were mixed yesterday, as the market caught its breath from the sharp selloff from Thursday and Friday. Technical support was tested and held, keeping that pocket intact for today’s session, 527 ½-532 ¼. A break and close below this pocket and we could see a repeat of Thursday/Friday. Futures are in the green in the early morning trade, but it’s nothing to write home about. The bulls need to regain ground above our pivot pocket to neutralize the recent bearish price action, our pivot pocket comes in from 548-553. This pocket represents previously important price points, along with the 100-day moving average.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 569 ¼-573 ½***, 588 ½-594 ¼***
Pivot: 548-551 ½
Support: 527 ½-532 ¼**, 507-514 ¼****
Soybeans (November)
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s weekly export inspections report came in at 214,061 metric tons, within the range of expectations. Crop progress was released after the close, that showed good/excellent ratings at 56%, a 1% drop from the previous week, but in line with expectations. 3% of the crop is dropping leaves, in line with the five-year average. As mentioned in the corn section, it’s that time of year where crop conditions become less and less meaningful each week.
Technicals: Soybeans are firm in the early morning trade as the market tries to reclaim ground above our pivot pocket (previous support), 1300 ½-1306 ¾. If the bulls can chew through and achieve a conviction close above this pocket, we could make our way towards last week’s secondary breakdown point, 1325 ¾-1333. If the bulls fail to hold ground, we could see prices retest the June lows, 1240 ½.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 1325 ¾-1333***, 1345 ¼-1352 ¼****
Pivot: 1300 ½-1306 ¾
Support: 1277 ¼**, 1259 ¾-1267**, 1240 ½**
Wheat (December)
Technicals: Chicago wheat futures were able to hold ground yesterday, but it was a fairly weak attempt at a relief rally. Futures are lower in the early morning trade, retesting support from 722-725. A break and close below this pocket could open the door for a move back to the psychologically significant $7.00 handle and just below that, the 100-day moving average, 693 ½.
Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 770 ½**, 786 ½* 799-801 ½**
Pivot: 749 ¾-751 ¾
Support: 723 ½-725***, 693 ½-700****
Learn more about Bill Baruch at Blue Line Futures.
