Recently, I read yet another bearish article on the market, and I found a comment which I can appropriately summarize thusly, states Avi Gilburt of ElliottWaveTrader.net.
"I love your articles. They are so well written, such great charts, such great analysis, but why has the crash not happened yet?"
Then, I saw the following response:
"The crash hasn't happened because the market is in denial. If it weren't for that, the analysis would be spot on. The market simply refuses to acknowledge reality. It really should talk to a psychologist."
Folks, the point I am trying to make by highlighting these comments is that we cannot make the market bend to what we may believe to be “reality.” We need to look at the market objectively in order to make our assessments about the future direction of the market. Simply calling the market a name or thinking it has been displaced from reality will never help your investment account.
Yet, most people have a bias as to what they think must happen in the market, and apply that bias to their investment account, with many even posting comments based upon that bias. The two comments above are perfect examples.
The main problem is that many do not have the appropriate objective tools with which to ascertain market direction. Rather, many view the market fundamentals as providing the clues to market direction. But unfortunately, that is not how the market works, and it has seriously led people astray, with so many fighting this rally off the March 2020 lows.
I have explained this in past articles such as this one, but the main point is that sentiment is what drives the market and places the spin on how the public views any of the fundamentals. If the market is in a positive sentiment trend, then negative fundamentals will be ignored, and vice versa. We have all seen markets rally on bad news and wonder “how the heck is this possible?”
With our objective analysis, not only did we catch the bottom last year at 2200SPX, I even said before we bottomed that we will likely see a strong rally to at least the 4000SPX region, with my ideal target being the 6000SPX region. Now, if you remember the emotional environment at the time, I am sure you can understand why so many looked at me like I was crazy. But it was clearly not the first call I have made that has elicited such a response. In fact, it was not even the 20th.
I even saw one comment this past week that said:
“Avi is right more often than I would like to admit.”
The question I always ask is why do so many people fight what I am trying to teach? Well, there are a number of reasons.
First, in order to accept what I am saying about the market, you have to unlearn all the things you have learned all these years about what drives the market.
Second, it requires you to understand that the market is driven by emotion and not by logic. In order to do so, many have to give up viewing the market logically. Yet, most people cannot accept the market action unless they believe they know the reason as to why the market moved.
What they don’t understand is that reasons are completely useless. They are only offered by the media and pundits after the fact to attempt to explain a move that already happened. There are many times they cannot even find a reason as to why a market move happened, which leads to some of the funniest headlines you will see, assuming you are paying attention.
Consider what was written by Professor Hernan Cortes Douglas, former Luksic Scholar at Harvard University, former Deputy Research Administrator at the World Bank, and former Senior Economist at the IMF, regarding those engaged in “fundamental” analysis for predictive purposes regarding the stock market:
The historical data say that they cannot succeed; financial markets never collapse when things look bad. In fact, quite the contrary is true. Before contractions begin, macroeconomic flows always look fine. That is why the vast majority of economists always proclaim the economy to be in excellent health just before it swoons. Despite these failures, indeed despite repeating almost precisely those failures, economists have continued to pore over the same macroeconomic fundamentals for clues to the future. If the conventional macroeconomic approach is useless even in retrospect, if it cannot explain or understand an outcome when we know what it is, has it a prayer of doing so when the goal is assessing the future?
The exact opposite is true. Did the economic world not consider us in a recession during the entire rally from 2200 to 4000?
As we came into 2021 (with the market starting the year out at 3750SPX), I outlined to those willing to listen that I was expecting at least a 20% rally, with at least the 4600SPX as my target for 2021. That means I was looking for a rally of at least 850 points. Thus far, we have clearly exceeded my 20% minimum rally expectation, and the market has rallied 800 points and come within 50 points of the 4600SPX target I set for this year.
Many months ago, I also noted that I think we can get a 200-300 point pullback from the 4440-4600SPX region before we are ready to rally through 4600SPX. And, as we can see now, the market is again obliging our expectations.
The funny thing is that I actually got chided recently by another commenter that acknowledged that we are getting the 200-300 point pullback I was expecting but faulted me for the market topping at 4550SPX and not 4600SPX. I just shook my head in amazement when I read that comment. I caught 800 of the 850 points I called for earlier this year, and even called for this 200-300 point decline. But sadly, I was simply not perfect in his myopic view. The real truth is that I noted that the 200-300 point decline can begin from the 4440-4600SPX target zone. But who cares about the truth. (smile)
Again, it is just so hard for people to let go of what they believe about the market. Sadly, this is the nature of far too many market participants, as so many still fight what I am trying to outline and teach about the market. But, rest assured, I still think we have plenty of time to be able to get to that 4600SPX mark before the end of the year, and potentially even exceed it.
For many months, I have been outlining a major market pivot between 4095-4270SPX. That is the major support in the market at this time. I noted earlier this year that once the market exceeds that pivot, it will rally into the 4440-4600SPX region, and then come back to test that market pivot from above. As long as the market holds that support region, I am looking for a signal that we have begun our next rally to our next major target in the 4900-5000SPX region.
At the end of the week this past week, the futures market struck the top of this support region at the equivalent of the 4270SPX on the nose, and Friday we experienced a very strong rally off that support. Yet, I need to see a 5-wave structure off the low to provide us with our initial signal that the rally to 4900+ has begun in earnest.
If we do not see that 5-wave structure complete early in the coming week, and instead, we break down below 4320SPX, then it likely means that this current pullback has not yet completed, and we will likely drop towards the 4200-4220SPX region, and ultimately point us down towards the 4165SPX region.
So, I believe the coming week will provide us clues as to whether we have hit our bottom at the top end of our support region, and have begun the next rally to 4900+, or if we have deeper to go into our support region before that next rally begins in earnest.
Hey, who knows? I could always be wrong. But, when the two top trending topics this weekend were about an impending bear market and the most dangerous market ever, well, the boat is starting to feel a bit weighty on one side.
Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave analyst and founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net, a live trading room featuring his analysis on the S&P 500, precious metals, oil & USD, plus a team of analysts covering a range of other markets.
