S&P futures are still game for trend followers, while less range is likely for other markets, writes Trevor Smith of Trevor's Trading.
Multiperiod ranges and ordinary range averages indicate sideways markets for the next two weeks. It may appear as a price-acceptance pause, with the S&P futures being the exception. Trending mathematics are abound, according to my multiple calculation methods for equity indices/futures that include aggregate averages, standard deviations, and option chain prices.
My last article predicted range expansions and trend-joining character for gold, bitcoin and S&P futures. All three markets subsequently broke into new highs. Traders could have, as suggested, joined any of the three trending markets profitably. On October 31, 2021, it also predicted space weather dates conducive for "bearish sentiment (that) may be near November 3, 7, 9, and 15". The red candlesticks on the daily chart of Vanguard’s Total Stock Market ETF (VTI) occurred on November 5, 8, 9, and 10, with unknown bearishness for Monday, November 15, 2021 on Sunday night. 7 of 10 projected ranges are printed as of November 14, 2021.
Next Two Week’s Predicted Ranges (Written November 14, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4733-4707; Low Range 4663-4644 (Note: 4758, 4748, 4606 outliers would fulfill Monthly 1-SD range).
Expanded bidirectional range with tendency for inaccuracy in these conditions. Space weather dates for bearish sentiment may be near November 20, 25, and 28. While solar cycle 25 is low in effect, several sources assert that a “little ice age” is unlikely; readers can monitor both topics in development as space weather prediction models evolve/advance. Yearly Floor Pivot: 3225.
Bitcoin
High Range 69485-66430; Low Range 61250-59598.
Bearish ranges; option chain skew is still very bullish in bearish technical charts.
Euro FX
High Range 1.150-1.147; Low Range 1.140-1.138.
Bullish-neutral ranges under moving average pulls from above. 1.160 monthly pivot target on the table.
Gold
High Range $1900-$1882; Low Range $1852-1834.
Neutral ranges in narrow-range.
Crude Oil
High Range $83.86-82.32; Low Range $79.80-78.63.
Bearish ranges. An attempt by the monthly-chart bear candle to reach the yearly pivot: $40.19, as a sudden, sharp news-sparked price thrust down to $54-$46, Fibonacci 50% level that quickly recovers is possible. Negative divergence appearing in charts—prepare for at least a minor pullback!
Prior Predicted Ranges (Written October 31 for October 31-November 15, 2021)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 4644-4630; Low Range 4573-4556.
Neutral-expanded bearish range. Space weather dates for bearish sentiment may be near November 3,7, 9, and 15. Yearly Pivot: 3225.
Actual: 4711-4586.
Bitcoin
High Range 63400-60715; Low Range 58500-55510.
Bearish ranges; option chain skew is still very bullish but technical are bearish. See monthly chart.
Actual: 69355-59700.
Euro FX
High Range 1.161-1.158; Low Range 1.155-1.150
Bullish-neutral ranges under moving average pulls from above. 1.160 monthly pivot target on the table.
Actual: 1.162-1.143
Gold
High Range $1808-$1792; Low Range $1782-1776.
Neutral ranges in narrow-range.
Actual: $1872-1758.
Crude Oil
High Range $84.96-83.00; Low Range $77.95-76.12.
Bearish ranges. An attempt by the monthly-chart bear candle to reach the yearly pivot: $40.19, as a sudden, sharp news-sparked price thrust down to $54-$46 Fibonacci 50% level that quickly recovers is possible. Negative divergence appearing in charts—prepare for at least a minor pullback!
Actual: $ 84.97-78.25.
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. You can view Trevor’s Trading here.
