Neither bulls nor bears on Friday showed much interest in pushing their agenda. The S&P 500 (SPX) finished the session essentially flat at 4,026, states Jon Markman, editor of Strategic Advantage.
Despite the lethargy on Friday, the benchmark index ended the week with a solid gain of 1.5%. I’m still looking for bears to concede a rally to the 200-day moving average up at 4,057, about 0.8% from current levels.
It was clear three weeks ago that bears would give up ground to that key overhead resistance level. Some traders may move to the sidelines ahead of that advance, yet the path of the least resistance is still higher. That said, bear markets live below the 200-day moving average. Bears need to regroup and make a spirited defense at 4.057. This is an all-hands-on-deck sort of thing. Support is 3,916, the rising 20-day moving.
Strategic Trade: Current position is ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (SSO), a 2x leveraged exchanged traded fund. The SSO was added on November 18 at $47.25 and closed Friday at $49.43, up 4.6% from the entry level. Place an order to sell the entire position at $50.15 Place a new stop loss order at $48.25 If this trade works, the potential upside target is +6.1% and the potential downside risk is +2.5%.