If you’re eating your way through your kid’s Halloween candy, then you know it’s officially the holiday season. Thanksgiving is around the corner, then Christmas. This has been a GREAT time for the S&P 500 Index (^SPX) historically. So, is a year-end run incoming in 2025?

Let’s start with the MoneyShow Chart of the Day – a look at the S&P 500’s average monthly returns going back to 1927.

chart

Source: Bank of America Global Research

You can see that November’s average return hovers just above 1%, while December’s clocks in at almost 1.3%. Plus, your chance of having a winning month increases sequentially in the last three months of the year.

Now let’s state the obvious: Seasonality helps with pattern analysis. But it doesn’t guarantee anything. September is historically a lousy month, with an average loss of 1.17%. But September was a great month this year, with the S&P rising 3.5%.

I’m still leaning bullish here in Q4. So, if I HAD to make a prediction, I DO think we finish the year off with a flourish.

But I’m watching sentiment. I’m watching market breadth. I’m watching earnings. And I’m watching yields and the dollar. If conditions start deteriorating, I’ll let you know – and I’ll adjust my stance!