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The pandemic set the US and global economy on its biggest roller-coaster ride of the post-war era. Going from a depressionary bust to a war-time boom in a single year is unprecedented and it has created a unique economic and financial market environment. Will the abuse and overuse of economic policy stimulus cause overwhelming inflation or simply a temporary spike? Is the US headed for another productivity miracle? Can the above-average pace of US real GDP growth persist even after economic policy accommodation is normalized? Could investors enter 2022 with an undervalued stock market, a moderating inflation rate, a near-record low yield structure, above average real GDP growth, and continued strong earnings gains? How young is this bull market?
Jim Paulsen is chief investment strategist and a portfolio manager at The Leuthold Group, LLC. He is a member of the investment committee, authors market and economic commentary, and works with the Leuthold investment team in serving institutional, financial advisor, and investment-professional clients. Mr. Paulsen's long-running newsletter, now titled Paulsen's Perspective, is published and distributed alongside their premier monthly research product, Perception for the Professional.
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