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History hints that due to a variety of milestones set earlier in the year - including the number of new all-time highs through February, the Q1 2021 low not eclipsing the December 2020 low, and a top-20 first half return for the S&P 500 Q4 2021 will likely record a higher-than–average full year return. Indeed, the S&P 500 typically saves the best for last. Whether looking at all years since 1945, or just first–year of the 16–quarter presidential cycle, the S&P 500 recorded its highest average price change in Q4, as well as its highest frequency of price gains. However, investors will need to hang on tight during the typically tumultuous ride in October, which saw 36% higher volatility when compared with the average for the other 11 months. Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA Research will discuss his outlook for the remainder of 2021 and his preliminary prognosis for 2022.
As chief investment strategist, Sam Stovall serves as analyst, publisher, and communicator of CFRA's outlooks for the economy, market, and sectors. He focuses on market history and valuations, as well as industry momentum strategies. Mr. Stovall is the author of The Seven Rules of Wall Street, and writes weekly Sector Watch and Investment Policy Committee meeting notes on CFRA's MarketScope Advisor platform. His work is also found in CFRA's flagship weekly newsletter The Outlook.
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