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Too Much Pessimism or Not Enough?

Released on Monday, February 20, 2023ECONOMY
The US economy seems to be heading into a recession, while inflation remains high. It's hard to be an optimist under the circumstances. Indeed, during June 2022, one measure of consumer sentiment fell to the lowest on record starting in 1952. Also in June, the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio was the lowest it has been since the bottom of the bear market during the Great Financial Crisis. Might there be too much pessimism? The past year has been like living through the stagflationary 1970s, but on fast forward. However, a mild recession could help to bring inflation down sooner rather than later, setting the stage for recovery with gains to be had again in the bond and stock market. Dr. Ed Yardeni will provide a balanced discussion of what could go right and what could go wrong over the next 12 months, as well as the rest of this decade.

Edward Yardeni
Yardeni Research, Inc., President

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