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History warned investors that 2022 would likely slip into a meaningful decline early in the year, accompanied by elevated price volatility. It also cautioned that there were enough macro ingredients in play to threaten a recession. Encouragingly, history also says "This, too, shall pass" and that Q4 of 2022 and the first two quarters of 2023 typically experience the highest average S&P 500 price returns—along with dramatically reduced volatility—when compared with the entire 16-quarter presidential cycle. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA, discuss whether fundamental and technical outlooks suggest that history will indeed repeat, or if the market will be challenged once again.
As chief investment strategist, Sam Stovall serves as analyst, publisher, and communicator of CFRA's outlooks for the economy, market, and sectors. He focuses on market history and valuations, as well as industry momentum strategies. Mr. Stovall is the author of The Seven Rules of Wall Street and writes weekly Sector Watch and Investment Policy Committee meeting notes on CFRA's MarketScope Advisor platform. His work is also found in CFRA's flagship weekly newsletter The Outlook.
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