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H2 2025: Economic Boom, Bust, or Meh? Sorting Truth, Fiction, and Risks
The first half of 2025 was replete with uncertainty, market volatility, tariffs, wars, and disagreements in Washington on federal taxes and spending. Despite these factors, underlying demand appeared to hold up. But will the economy begin to fray as we enter the second half of the year? Will there be spillover effects into 2026? What will the Fed do? This discussion will explore expectations for the US Economy in the second half of this year, plus upside and downside risks to the base case.
Dana M. Peterson is the chief economist and leader of the Economy, Strategy & Finance Center at The Conference Board. Prior to this, she served as a North America Economist and later as a Global Economist at Citi, the world’s largest investment bank. Her wealth of experience extends to the public sector, having also worked at the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C.
