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The North American equity markets at present closely resemble the patterns established during the 2000-02 bear market in the aftermath of the Internet bubble. In both cases an extremely expensive market has been badly affected by sharply rising interest rates leading to an initial bear market as price/earnings multiples contracted, as happened last year. Now an inverted yield curve is forecasting a recession, which means earnings are likely to fall leading to a second leg down, meaning investors should focus on defensive sectors with reasonable valuations.
Gavin Graham
The Income Investor,
Contributing Editor
With over 40 years of domestic and international financial experience, Gavin Graham is a highly sought-after market pundit and prognosticator. His wealth of global experience has been garnered through roles in London, Hong Kong, San Francisco, and Toronto including those of senior fund manager, Thornton Management; chief investment officer, Citigroup Investment Management (Asia); and chief investment officer, Guardian Group of Funds. Mr. Graham is a contributing editor of The Income Investor, host of the Gavin Graham Show podcast, and regular commentator in the financial media. Originally hailing from the UK, he is a graduate of Magdalen College at the University of Oxford and a Trustee of the Investment Committee of the Royal Medical Foundation (UK).
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