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The Trend Is Your Friend--or Is It Ready to End? | SPX 2,850 YE 2018

Released on Tuesday, May 15, 2018•MARKETS

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With 2017 ending the same way is started, at all-time new highs, investors are now asking whether the trend will remain their friend or whether it is ready to end?
Last year was an impressive year for equities as the S&P 500 index generated a new record high in roughly 1 out of every 4 trading days. Equally as impressive, the broader market strung together 64 weeks without a 2% drawdown and only registered 4 single day sessions with losses totaling 1% or more throughout the year. Lastly, volatility remained stubbornly low last year and the CBOE Volatility index reached record low levels. Thus, you can clearly see the trend has been a friend that has not let us down to this point!
Market internals remain strong as our intermediate-term measures of market breadth, 40-week Technique indicator and 26-week New Highs indicator, remain in buy positions. The NYSE A/D line is also printing new highs in lockstep with the broader market while the averages (INDU and TRAN) continue to confirm each other per Dow Theory. However, we don't believe 2018 will advance in the same linear path as 2017 and expect direction will appear more like a hop, a drop, and a pop as higher interest rates shake things up in 2018 by ultimately reversing a secular downtrend.
We reiterate our year-end 2018 price objective of 2,850 on the S&P 500.

Craig Johnson

Piper Sandler & Co., Managing Director and Senior Technical Analyst

Craig Johnson, CFA, CMT is a managing director and chief market technician at Piper Sandler, directing the technical research group. Johnson joined Piper Sandler in 1995 as an analyst in the firm’s private client research. Mr. Johnson frequently shares his technical views on CNBC and other major financial news networks, and his research is often quoted in the financial press. He earned a bachelor’s degree with an emphasis in finance, marketing, insurance, and an MBA degree from Drake University. He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst™ and Chartered Market Technician designations and is an active member of the Twin Cities Society of Securities Analysts and co-chapter chair of the Minnesota Chapter Market Technician Association. Johnson is a former president of the CMT Association and currently leads the Technical Analysis Education Foundation (TAEF).