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Falling realized and implied volatility levels have helped the market quickly recover from the Spring Tariff Tantrum. However, we observed similar price action in 2018 during the first trade war, followed by a period of significantly higher volatility levels, as economic data began to sour and tariffs started to take effect. We could consider a repeat, given that tariff levels today are significantly higher than they were in the past.
Michael Kramer is the founder of Mott Capital, a long-only investor who focuses on macro themes, using a wide array of tools to understand what drives the market on a daily basis. He analyzes economic conditions and their potential impacts across multiple asset classes, including stocks, bonds, FX, and commodities, to better identify entry and exit points for his long-term thematic growth strategy. Additionally, he shares his research through published work and a subscription service. He is a former buy-side trader, analyst, and portfolio manager with 30 years of experience tracking market technicals, fundamentals, and options.
