Todd Shaver, editor of BullMarket Report had an exceptional 2019; last year, he picked Apple (AAPL) as his favorite conservative stock and Roku (ROKU) as his top speculation. Apple rose 87% and Roku was up a staggering 315%.
We're still bullish on both Apple and Roku but recognize that it's going to be tough for either to repeat 2019's performance. Nevertheless, this year, we're still all about technology.
On the aggressive side, Shopify (SHOP) is still at the very earliest stages of monetizing its e-commerce platform but it's already at the sweet spot in terms of translating 30% sales growth into triple-digit profit expansion.
While the stock is admittedly priced for the stratosphere, cash is flowing fast enough to justify the multiples. SHOP reminds us most of Amazon (AMZN) at the beginning.
The difference is that instead of concentrating on its own store and crushing independent retailers, Shopify provides the tools that run independent online stores.
Think of picks and shovels in a gold rush. Amazon hit the motherlode but there's endless money to be made enabling everyone else to dig their own dirt.
Right now revenue is tracking $2 billion for 2020, which is roughly where Amazon was back in 1999. Jeff Bezos had a $76 stock in those days so you can see the long-term potential. Unlike Amazon in 1999, SHOP is already profitable and unlike Amazon today, it's still in the sweet spot of its growth curve.
Manufacturers are coming onboard now to sell their products direct to the consumer. That's going to disrupt the way we think about retail even more than Amazon did with its souped-up catalog sales model. Think about where Amazon went from $76. That's where SHOP can go.
