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The Nasdaq 100's Most Overbought
02/19/2013 10:00 am EST
As the market continues to grind higher without a correction, MoneyShow's Tom Aspray scans a lagging sector for candidates to buy on the inevitable pullback.
Overseas markets were mixed Monday as while Japan's Nikkei 225 was up over 2%, European stocks markets were down for the third day in a row. The focus was on currencies and commodities as the industrial metals were hit especially hard.
As I reviewed in last Friday's Week Ahead column, the daily A/D lines are positive but do show a loss of upside momentum. Though this increases the odds of a correction, it would take some time for a top to be completed.
The weekly starc band scan of the Nasdaq 100 stocks shows that there have been some bright spots as quite a few stocks are now at overbought levels. Leading the list is Netflix Inc. (NFLX) as it is up over 100% so far this year and closed last week at $189.51, which was 5% above its weekly starc+ band at $180.24.
The first four stocks on the list all closed last week above their weekly starc+ bands, which makes them all high-risk buys at current levels. But which of these ten most overbought stocks should you be looking to buy on a correction?
Chart Analysis: Activision Bizzard Inc. (ATVI) is a $15.9 billion dollar multimedia and graphics software company. The stock has accelerated to the upside recently after it beat the street's earning estimates for the fourth quarter in a row. In addition they have $4 per share in cash.
- The weekly chart shows the completion of a double bottom formation late last year as it made a low at $10.50.
- Last week, it closed 5% above its starc+ band for the second week in a row.
- The 2011 high at $13.65 has been overcome and ATVI traded as high as $19.28 in 2008.
- The relative performance formed higher lows in late 2012, line c, and then moved sharply above its WMA as well as its downtrend (line a).
- Volume has been very heavy over the past two weeks and the OBV has broken through major resistance at line d.
- There is minor support at $13.50 with stronger in the $12.50-$13 area.
Virgin Media Inc. (VMED) is a $12.1 billion company that provides cable TV services in the United Kingdom. It made its low in late 2011 at $20.51 and has been in a steady uptrend since the spring of 2012.
- VMED closed well above its starc+ band over the past two weeks but has tested it multiple times in the past year.
- Last week's narrow range and lower close suggests that a correction may be underway.
- The relative performance broke its downtrend, line f, last June and completed its bottom formation in September.
- The RS line has continued to confirm each new price high.
- The OBV formed a long-term positive divergence at the lows in 2011, line h.
- This divergence was confirmed in early 2012 when the OBV resistance at line g, was overcome.
- The first real support is in the $38.60-$40.25 area.
NEXT PAGE: 2 Stocks to Watch|pagebreak|
Microchip Tech (MCHP) is a $7.2 billion dollar specialized semiconductor maker that broke the downtrend going back to the early 2011 highs, line a, two weeks ago.
- The next weekly resistance is at $38.87 with the 2011 high at $41.40.
- The relative performance broke its downtrend, line b, at the end of the year and completed the bottom formation two weeks ago.
- The on-balance volume (OBV) broke its downtrend, line c, just before Christmas and shows a bullish zig-zag formation that I discussed in a recent trading lesson.
- The former downtrend is now at $35.35, which is the first good support and a retest of the breakout level would not be surprising.
- There is stronger support in the $32.74-$33.50 area.
Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) is a $16.4 billion semiconductor materials and equipment company that has been testing its weekly starc+ band over the past five weeks.
- The February 2012 high at $13.94 was slightly exceeded last week.
- There is longer-term resistance at $15.97 and then at $16.93, which was the March 2011 high.
- The relative performance broke its downtrend, line e, in the middle of December and then completed its bottom formation in the middle of January.
- The OBV has just moved above the resistance, line f, that goes back to early 2012.
- The OBV has surpassed its 2012 highs confirming the price action.
- There is initial support now at $13 with more important in the $12.15 area, line d.
What it Means: The sustained uptrend in Virgin Media (VMED) makes buying a pullback difficult. Of the other three stocks, only Microchip Tech (MCHP) seems suitable for buying a pullback currently but it is for more aggressive investors. The other two stocks would require a much deeper setback to reach a reasonable buying level, and I will be watching them.
How to Profit: For Microchip Tech (MCHP), go 50% long at $34.68 and 50% at $33.40, with a stop at $31.71 (risk of approx. 6.8%).
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