The Nasdaq 100 Index is now almost 18% above its 200-day moving average. Meanwhile, I will argue again that we have an extraordinarily mixed and uneven economy, notes Peter Boockvar, editor of The Boock Report.
As seen below, the Nasdaq 100 is the most extended since July 2024 – when it got to 20% right before a 13% correction. Just as gold got very extended and is currently in the midst of a shakeout, the NDX is now going vertical.
On the economic front, we know the University of Michigan consumer confidence index more reflects one’s politics than their actual financial situation and outlook. But we can look at the "Independent" category to get a view on consumer confidence that is not politically slanted.
The final October read seen Friday has the confidence of political Independents at just 49.5. That compares to 101 in February 2020 – and is only 3.3 points off a multi-year low. One’s standing now is highly dependent on how much money one makes, how much stock one holds, and what industry one works in. That is obviously always the case to a degree – but seemingly ever more so now.
Finally, the October Dallas manufacturing index remained in contraction at -5 vs -8.7 in September. The six-month outlook fell to a five-month low. Respondent comments in a variety of industries highlight again how mixed and uneven the economy is, with manufacturing in particular still in a recession.
