What to Watch Now

03/19/2013 6:00 am EST

Focus: TRADING

The Dow’s 10-day winning streak ended Friday, and those looking for signs on whether the market will resume its uptrend after digesting the Cyprus bailout, Marty Chenard of SafeHaven.com shares his findings.

Below are the institutional investor levels and trending for accumulation/distribution since last November.

The chart show's short-term good news and medium term bad news. How so?

Well, if you look at the chart, you can see that institutional investors are in accumulation and that it has been trending higher on a daily basis...and that is good for the short term.

Now look at the two trend lines we drew from last November to last Friday. The trend line for the NYA Index is going up...but when you look at the trend line for the institutional investor accumulation levels, you can see that it is going down.

What Does That Mean?

It means that as the rally matures, institutions have been cutting back their exposure to the market. The two different directions in the trend lines is also saying that there is a negative divergence between the actions of the market and institutional investors.

If you have the feeling that institutional investors are not the "big guns" anymore and that they really don't impact the market, then take a minute to observe what happened to the market every time the Institutional trending shifted down on this chart.

chart
Click to Enlarge

What's the Message from the Chart?

Be ready for when the institutional accumulation/distribution trend lines shift down because they will have a greater downside impact on the market the next time.

By Marty Chenard, Contributor, SafeHaven.com

Related Articles on TRADING