Stocks are sliding to end the week, while oil prices are climbing – with Brent crude trading near $105 a barrel again. Gold and silver are seeing some relief from recent selling, but Treasuries are continuing to wilt.
President Trump did a “can kick” late yesterday, extending his deadline for potential strikes on Iranian energy sites by another 10 days. But after briefly dropping, oil prices reversed and headed higher again. Stocks lost their gains. Why? After seeing the pattern of presidential threats and reversals many times in the past year, traders have learned to stop overreacting – or in essence, they’re “discounting” the remarks.
Plus, attacks and counterattacks are continuing in the Persian Gulf region regardless. Only a lasting, definitive ceasefire or truce will likely earn a sizable positive market reaction at this point.
How the Current S&P 500 Decline Compares to Past Geopolitically Driven Drops
Source: Wall Street Journal
Worth noting: The State Street S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) has dropped about 5.7% since the day before the conflict began. That's roughly in line with what we’ve seen during similar geopolitical shocks in the past, as the Wall Street Journal chart above shows. But if ground troops get involved or the war escalates notably, we could still see further downside.
Meanwhile, I just wrote about gold and the three reasons why it hasn’t performed as expected in this crisis. Now, one of the rumored drivers – central bank gold sales in Turkey – has been confirmed. The country’s central bank sold or swapped more than 58 tons of gold, worth about $8 billion, to shore up its currency after the war put pressure on it. The US dollar and US yields have risen due to the conflict, weighing on gold and silver prices.
Finally, the melding of traditional markets and prediction markets continues on Wall Street. Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (ICE) just announced another $600 million investment in Polymarket, following up a $1 billion direct investment in late 2025. ICE operates the New York Stock Exchange, while Polymarket offers traders the option of buying “yes or no” contracts on developments in everything from sports to politics to culture to weather.
