S&P 500 pivots/ranges/time cycles are forming a breakout setup; I have weekly range targets higher and monthly Fibonacci targets much higher. The euro, which sometimes leads U.S Indices, could even reverse/rally, too (1.117 weekly pivot zone).
In the bear cave, I find both the Japanese yen continuing and gold’s negative divergence leading down.
Last week, we were right about all winning option spreads (trades) and most ranges. The “Crazy Crude” breakout described last week has not occurred, although it did a high range test.
Next Week’s Predicted Ranges (Potential Near-Target Trades Relative to Friday’s Midday-Close)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 2957-2925; Low Range 2837-2825
Buy 2890/2895 weekly call spread
Japanese Yen
High Range 9519-9486; Low Range: 9365-9325
Sell weekly call spread 9450/9400
Euro FX
High Range 1.122-1.117; Low Range 1.109-1.105
Buy 1117/1115 call spread
Gold
High Range $1553-$1535; Low Range: $1504-$1487
Sell $1525/$1530 weekly call spread
Crude Oil
High Range $5904-$5760; Low Range $5367-$5244
Buy long call and long put spreads weekly near 5550/ 5600
Last Week’s Predicted-Versus-Actual Ranges (as of midday Thu., Aug. 16)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3015-2985; Low Range 2875-2855
Actual:2944-2817
Buy 2940/35 weekly call spread & 2905/2900 put spread (toward lower weekly pivot) because of sideways-chop weekly pivots can allow both directions to win
Japanese Yen
High Range 9590-9525; Low Range 9400-9330
Actual: 9544-9370
Sell weekly call spread 9500/9550 when underlying is at 9525-9550
Euro FX
High Range 1.128-1.126; Low range 1.119-1.115
Actual:1.126-1.111
Buy 1127/1125 weekly put spread
Gold
High Range $1530-$1560; Low range $1480-$1455
Actual: $1546-$1488
Sell $1515/$1510 weekly call spread for weekly pivot, range midpoint touches by this method against range breakout or sell the put spread joining the breakout rally toward next week’s highs.
Crude Oil
High Range $5699-$5578; Low Range $5230-$5130
Actual: $5747-$5354
Buy long call spreads weekly near $55 strike toward weekly highs, monthly call spreads if believing larger breakout is near/up
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Note: Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.
