Major Market Ranges For Week of May 17: Dow, S&P on Technical Support

05/15/2020 9:36 am EST


Trevor Smith

Commodity Trading Advisor,

Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Averages are near primary support levels in a coming sideways week of trading with mixed signals testing both directions.

Market internals show strength in the S&P 500 up to 2860 for the next several days.

Last week’s trade ideas to long the euro and sell crude oil preceded the euro’s moderately-higher highs, while crude went sideways and barely priced itself over the May 7 sell-signal candlestick Thursday, busting or delaying the trade. I consider $21.50, $20.50 per barrel unfulfilled/delayed targets. My S&P assessment last week occurred as anticipated. Seven of 10 projected weekly ranges printed as of Thursday afternoon with other ranges extremely close.

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 2888-2868; Low Range 2784-2755
Bull-adjusted high range on the week, guardedly so, expecting down moves too.

Japanese Yen
High Range 9425-9375; Low Range 9305-9285
Range is bearish. Weekly chart bear signals. Strategy: join breakouts.

Euro FX
High Range 1.090-1.085; Low Range 1.076-1.072
Bullish-adjusted ranges; low of bullish long signal candle for this week still holding Thur.

High Range $1,779-$1759 Low Range $1,720-$1,698
Bullish ranges; high retest resistances; reverse position if signs occur.

Crude Oil
High Range $29.86-$28.50; Low Range $25.50-$23.50
Bull-adjusted ranges. Opinion: Sell signal in effect to $2150, coming week is sideways,

Last Week’s Predicted-Versus-Actual Ranges (Friday morning):

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 2929-2907; Low Range 2844-2824
Actual: 2947-2760
Bear-adjusted high range omits 2963 target. If price exceeds 2907 Friday, traders should adjust the high range upwards. Pivot-based strategy: join breakouts; unprinted 2810 outlier target below Thursday’s pricing.

Japanese Yen
High Range 9478-9444; Low Range 9348-9308
Actual: 9419-9282
Range is bearish. Both sides widened. Pivot-based strategy: join breakouts

Euro FX
High Range 1.096-1.091; Low Range 1.079-1.076
Actual: 1090-1078
Bullish-adjusted ranges towards 1.137 target. Daily chart bull engulfing candlestick with volume surge trade on pivot support.

High Range $1764-$1741; Low Range $1700-$1686
Actual: $1746-$1692
Bullish ranges; Bullish trade opinion. Range Strategy: join cautious rally into high retests; reverse position if signs occur.

Crude Oil
High Range 2800-2575; Low Range 2135-1978

Bear-adjusted ranges. Opinion: sell signal in effect toward 20-day Moving Average at $19.50.

Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. Trevor holds four academic degrees across several disciplines and has published works in: Nashville Lifestyles Magazine, The Colorado Daily, The Tennessean/USA Today, Vitamin Retailer, and other media. You can view “Trevor’s Trading” here.

Note: Range calculations this week were made Wednesday evening. Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.

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