Major Market Ranges for Week of May 10: Sell Oil & Buy Euro Call Spreads

05/08/2020 12:14 pm EST

Focus: TECHNICAL

Trevor Smith

Commodity Trading Advisor, www.trevorsmithfnp.com

Next week's major market range predictions from Trevor Smith.

Crude oil offers a sell candlestick signal on weekly highs, while the euro has a strong buy candlestick on weekly lows net week.

Friday begins trending mathematics for a five-day period in the Japanese yen on many timeframes, as of Thursday afternoon. S&P 500 futures’ math is similar. One strategy is to continue joining breakouts in both. 

Last week’s statements predicting Japanese yen breakouts and identifying “Sell in May” opportunities, accurately foretold this week’s price action. Six of 10 projected weekly ranges printed as of Thursday afternoon with other ranges extremely close.

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges

E-mini S&P 500

High Range 2929-2907; Low Range 2844-2824

Bear-adjusted high range omits 2963 target. If price exceeds 2907 Friday, traders should adjust the high range upwards. Pivot-based strategy: join breakouts; unprinted 2810 outlier target below Thursday’s pricing.

Japanese Yen
High Range 9478-9444; Low Range 9348-9308
Range is bearish. Both sides widened. Pivot-based strategy: join breakouts

Euro FX
High Range 1.096-1.091; Low Range 1.079-1.076
Bullish-adjusted ranges towards 1.137 target. Daily chart bull engulfing candlestick with volume surge trade on technical support.

Gold
High Range $1764-$1741; Low Range $1700-$1686
Bullish ranges. Join rally into high retests cautiously; reverse position if signs occur.

Crude Oil
High Range $280.0-$25.75; Low Range $21.35-$19.78
Bear-adjusted ranges. Sell signal in effect toward 20-day moving average at $19.50.

Last Week’s Predicted-Versus-Actual Ranges (Thursday afternoon):

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 2995-2955; Low Range 2837-2817
Actual: 2895-2771
Bear-adjusted high range. Both sides widened. Pivot-based strategy: join breakouts.

Japanese Yen
High Range 9420-9367; Low Range 9280-9268
Actual: 9441-9315
Range is bearish. Both sides widened. Pivot-based strategy: join breakouts.

Euro FX
High Range 1.106-1.103; Low range 1.085-1.080
Actual: 1.10285-1.0774 (rounding up 1.103 counts range as touched, since article reports 4 digits)
Bullish-adjusted ranges towards 1.137 target.

Gold
High Range $1743-$1716; Low Range $1664-$1651
Actual: $1733-$1676
Bearish ranges; Bearish trade opinion. Range Strategy: Sell weekly/monthly call spread..

Crude Oil
High Range $2400-$2203; Low Range $1480-$1283
Actual: $2674-$1805
Bullish range due to bullish inside harami candlestick in weekly chart; Call Spreads in weekly/monthly options are a range breakout strategy or short put spreads for bullish-sideways opinions.

Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. Trevor holds four academic degrees across several disciplines and has published works in: Nashville Lifestyles Magazine, The Colorado Daily, The Tennessean/USA Today, Vitamin Retailer, and other media. You can view “Trevor’s Trading” here.

Note: Range calculations this week were made Wednesday evening. Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.

Related Articles on TECHNICAL

Keyword Image
S&P 500 Grinding Higher
06/03/2020 6:00 am EST

E-mini S&P has been grinding higher during the day and offering opportunities in overnight sessi...