As chief investment strategist, Sam Stovall serves as analyst, publisher, and communicator of CFRA's outlooks for the economy, market, and sectors. He focuses on market history and valuations, as well as industry momentum strategies. Mr. Stovall is the author of The Seven Rules of Wall Street and writes weekly Sector Watch and Investment Policy Committee meeting notes on CFRA's MarketScope Advisor platform. His work is also found in CFRA's flagship weekly newsletter The Outlook.
Uncertainty continues to prevail; reasons for the lack of conviction center on eroding earnings growth projections, and the upcoming midterm elections, notes Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research's The Outlook— and a participant in MoneyShow's Post-Election Virtual Expo on November 10-11. Register here for free.
October is living up to its reputation as a volatile month, since the S&P 500 has typically recorded 36% higher volatility in this month versus the average for the remaining 11 months of the year, observes chief investment strategist Sam Stovall in CFRA Research's flagship newsletter, The Outlook.
The S&P 500’s price action in September has been true to its reputation, asserts Sam Stovall in The Outlook, CFRA Research's flagship newsletter; the chief financial investment strategist is also a participant in The MoneyShow Orlando, October 30 to November 1. Register here.
With the Jackson Hole meeting now concluded, and the September 20-21 FOMC meeting within reach, debate rages over the expected magnitude of the next rate hike, observes Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist for CFRA Research, in the firm's flagship newsletter, The Outlook.
History warned investors that 2022 would likely slip into a meaningful decline early in the year, accompanied by elevated price volatility. It also cautioned that there were enough macro ingredients in play to threaten a recession. Encouragingly, history also says This, too, shall pass and that Q4 of 2022 and the first two quarters of 2023 typically experience the highest average S&P 500 price returns—along with dramatically reduced volatility—when compared with the entire 16-quarter presidential cycle. Come hear Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA, discuss whether fundamental and technical outlooks suggest that history will indeed repeat, or if the market will be challenged once again.
Global economic projections for 2022 continue to be revised lower for advanced and emerging economies, as well as Europe and the US, dragging Canada down with it. Canada's Real GDP is forecast to rise 3.7% this year, according to Action Economics, down from the 4.7% growth projected on 12/31/21. However, while the S&P 500 is down more than 18% year-to-date through May 19, the S&P/TSX Composite is off only 4.2%. In addition, despite paralleling the US economic undulations, the S&P/TSX 60's rolling five-year relative strength has finally begun to lift away from the minus-one standard deviation level that it has hugged since 2013. Should US investors sit up and take notice of our neighbors to the north? If so, where are the pockets of sector and stock opportunities? Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research, and author of The Seven Rules of Wall Street, will discuss his Canadian sector rotation model and introduce investors to CFRA's stock reports on 58 Canadian-listed firms.
In 2022, President Biden will start his second year in office. The S&P 500 rose an average of only 2.6% during the second year of first-term presidents since WWII, versus 10.3% for all first-term years. Will Covid-19 continue to vex the global economy as the prospects of higher interest rates triggers P/E contraction? Come hear Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA, discuss whether history will repeat and cause the S&P 500 to stumble or even collapse under the weight of rising inflation, interest rates, and P/Es, or whether the post-contagion bull has further to run.
History hints that due to a variety of milestones set earlier in the year - including the number of new all-time highs through February, the Q1 2021 low not eclipsing the December 2020 low, and a top-20 first half return for the S&P 500 Q4 2021 will likely record a higher-than–average full year return. Indeed, the S&P 500 typically saves the best for last. Whether looking at all years since 1945, or just first–year of the 16–quarter presidential cycle, the S&P 500 recorded its highest average price change in Q4, as well as its highest frequency of price gains. However, investors will need to hang on tight during the typically tumultuous ride in October, which saw 36% higher volatility when compared with the average for the other 11 months. Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA Research will discuss his outlook for the remainder of 2021 and his preliminary prognosis for 2022.