As chief investment strategist, Sam Stovall serves as analyst, publisher, and communicator of CFRA's outlooks for the economy, market, and sectors. He focuses on market history and valuations, as well as industry momentum strategies. Mr. Stovall is the author of The Seven Rules of Wall Street and writes weekly Sector Watch and Investment Policy Committee meeting notes on CFRA's MarketScope Advisor platform. His work is also found in CFRA's flagship weekly newsletter The Outlook.
Investors had a lot of headwinds to contend with in the week just passed, from hotter-than-expected readings from two of the three closely followed monthly inflation reports, to a United Auto Workers (UAW) strike at key plants for each of the three US automakers, and the growing likelihood of a US government shutdown by month end, notes Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.
A plethora of economic and geopolitical challenges to the health of this baby bull market, such as a soaring 10-year bond yield, an increasing likelihood of additional rate hikes, and a potential economic crisis in China, just caused global equity markets to experience an accelerated attempt to lock in gains from the recent nine-month advance. However, we don’t think this is the beginning of the end of the nascent bull market, writes Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.
Investors were pleasantly surprised last week by the better-than-expected readings for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for June on both the headline and core levels. They elevated optimism for the end-of-month Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, writes Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.
Despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding a possible recession, exacerbated by a still hawkish-sounding Fed, an earnings recession, narrow S&P 500 leadership, and an array of steeply inverted yield curves, the equity markets continue to climb a wall of worry, notes Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research.
Even though the debt ceiling debate is behind us, and the Fed has completed its June FOMC meeting, investors should continue to be buffeted by headwinds from the longer-term effects of an aggressive rate-tightening policy on the economy and stock market. In addition, despite the surge in the Nasdaq-100 since AI has become an all-consuming topic, 50% of all Nasdaq-100 bull markets since its inception were fake-outs and went on to set an even lower low after advancing 20%. Also, with ever-shrinking breadth as the equity markets grind higher, is this a sign of disappointment to come and remind us that we are in a seasonally weak period for equities? For answers, tune in to hear Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA Research, discuss where the stock market is likely to take us during the second half of the year and how to position your portfolios accordingly.
History hints quite strongly that 2023 won't be a repeat of 2022, as the S&P typically posted an average price gain in excess of 14% in the years following declines, versus the more normal 8.9% annual increase, and posted a higher-than-average frequency of advance. In addition, a down year followed by a positive January Barometer typically led to a 23%+ price gain and a 92% frequency of advance. Will history repeat, or, like some singers of the National Anthem, forget the words? Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist of CFRA Research, will offer his take on historical precedent and share his sector selections in what could be a surprisingly profitable year.
This is IT. Your 2023 Global Strategy Summit. Coming at the conclusion of our inaugural Accredited Investors Symposium, this session is not to be missed. You'll get the final word on what to do with investments in the stock, bond, currency, real estate, and commodity markets-and what unique opportunities in the accredited investor space will prosper best before you and your fellow conference attendees and speakers part ways.
History warned investors that 2022 would likely slip into a meaningful decline early in the year, accompanied by elevated price volatility. It also cautioned that there were enough macro ingredients in play to threaten a recession. Encouragingly, history also says "This, too, shall pass" and that Q4 of 2022 and the first two quarters of 2023 typically experience the highest average S&P 500 price returns—along with dramatically reduced volatility—when compared with the entire 16-quarter presidential cycle. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA, discuss whether fundamental and technical outlooks suggest that history will indeed repeat, or if the market will be challenged once again.