Next week’s market range forecast from Trevor Smith.
Trending breaks extending into midweek in both crude oil and the S&P 500 futures begin Friday, according to a market mathematics. Both are in bearish technical setups with strong buyer presence.
Stock indices and oil are printing higher highs, but some market internals continue with lower highs/lows for 10 days. Thus, the depth of a downward range extension could exceed 1 standard deviation.
Gold’s inside-range breakout setup is a directional mystery. Join it as it exceeds my ranges next week.
Last week’s trade ideas worked, albeit briefly as markets then turned into the opposite directions! Seven of 10 projected weekly ranges printed as of Thursday afternoon with other ranges extremely close, such as the S&P’s lowest trade being just 3 points over my projected lows.
Next Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3169-3142; Low Range 3032-3004
VIX bullish candlestick is on pivot supports; trending math Fri-Wed. Strategy: join it
Japanese Yen
High Range 9250-9228; Low Range 9138-9122
Neutral range
Euro FX
High Range 1.143-1.137; Low Range 1.124-1.118
Neutral range. My “Bullish to 1.138” statement returns. Monthly bullish candlestick. Consider four-month Long trade.
Gold
High Range $1,748-$1,735; Low Range $1,696-$1,683
Neutral range. Breakout math. Range block/rectangle buildout on weekly-chart. Join trends.
Crude Oil
High Range $39.63-$38.03; Low Range $35.09-$33.53
Quarterly bullish candle so far; bearish divergence daily chart.
Last Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3111-3083; Low Range 2989-2962
Neutral-bear range technical opinions, VIX buy candle; sell call spread/buy put spread. 3005 as target.
Actual: 3129-2992
Japanese Yen
High Range 9333-9317; Low Range 9275-9249
Bullish range & candlesticks in triplicate on daily chart, and on 50-week average support. Long trade.
Actual: 9341-9158
Euro FX
High Range 1.114-1.112; Low Range 1.097-1.094
Neutral range. Weekly break over 20-,50-week averages, monthly bullish candlestick. Consider four-month Long trade possibility.
Actual: 1.136-1.107
Gold
High Range $1,768-$1,752; Low Range $1,707-$1,695
Bearish opinion, from three-day chart; neutral ranges here due to range box or weekly-chart pennant/flag. Daily chart is bullish. A bear trader could sell higher if the next move is upside; bulls can join it.
Actual: $1761-$1690
Crude Oil
High Range $36.30-$35.09; Low Range $29.55-$28.17
Bear-adjusted highs. Opinion from double-doji on three-day chart in context of bullish monthly chart
Actual: $38.18-$32.36
Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. Trevor holds four academic degrees across several disciplines and has published works in: Nashville Lifestyles Magazine, The Colorado Daily, The Tennessean/USA Today, Vitamin Retailer, and other media. You can view “Trevor’s Trading” here.
Note: Range calculations this week were made Wednesday evening. Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.
