Major Market Ranges for Week of May 31: Weak S&P Internals

05/29/2020 10:29 am EST


Trevor Smith

Commodity Trading Advisor,

Market internals symbols for stock indexes are printing lower lows today against actual indices’ higher highs. This negative divergence/imbalance in the “Advancers-Decliners” ratio ($ADD, $ADVN) hints at pullbacks. 

Trade ideas based on candlestick pattern opinions include bearish weekly S&P 500 futures put spreads toward 3005, and long weekly Japanese yen futures call spreads.

Last week’s headline, “Rally Slows, Yen Trends” somewhat predicted this week’s markets in that the trading character of the Japanese Yen futures was trending, and indices dropped the day after the article posted. Indices then ran higher than my projected weekly range! 8/10 projected weekly ranges printed as of Thursday afternoon with other ranges extremely close.

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3111-3083; Low Range 2989-2962
Neutral-bear range technical opinions, VIX buy candle; sell call spread/buy put spread. 3005 as target.

Japanese Yen
High Range 9333-9317; Low Range 9275-9249
Bullish range & candlesticks in triplicate on Daily chart. On 50-week average support. Long trade.

Euro FX
High Range 1.114-1.112; Low Range 1.097-1.094
Neutral range. Weekly break over 20-,50-week averages, monthly bullish candlestick. Consider four-month Long trade possibility.

High Range $1,768-$1,752; Low Range $1,707-$1,695
Bearish opinion, from three-day chart; neutral ranges here due to range box or weekly-chart pennant/flag. Daily chart is bullish. A bear trader could sell higher if the next move is upside; bulls can join it.

Crude Oil
High Range $36.30-$35.09; Low Range $29.55-$28.17
Bear-adjusted highs. Opinion from double-doji on three-day chart in context of bullish monthly chart

Last Week’s Predicted-Versus-Actual Ranges (Thursday Night):

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3018-2988; Low Range 2915-2882
Actual: 3064-2903
Neutral range, bear opinion. 20-week, 50-week averages crossover indicating 3-5 weeks of random, attempted down thrusts.

Japanese Yen
High Range 9345-9325; Low Range 9278-9258
Actual: 9320-9265
Bullish range, Friday-early-week breakout expectation. Strategy: join breakouts. News events for this currency are Friday and next Thursday.

Euro FX
High Range 1.107-1.103; Low Range 1.092-1.090
Actual: 1.109-1.087
Bear-adjusted soft highs range.

High Range $1760-$1741; Low Range $1705-$1691
Actual: $1743-$1700
Bearish opinion, but neutral ranges due to range box or weekly-chart pennant/flag

Crude Oil
High Range $37.27-$35.49; Low Range $31.61-$29.72
Actual: $34.81-$31.14
Bear-adjusted highs. Opinion from 20-week average resistance.

Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. Trevor holds four academic degrees across several disciplines and has published works in: Nashville Lifestyles Magazine, The Colorado Daily, The Tennessean/USA Today, Vitamin Retailer, and other media. You can view “Trevor’s Trading” here.

Note: Range calculations this week were made Wednesday evening. Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.

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