Major Market Ranges for the Week of July 12: Trending Breakouts in Market Weakness

07/10/2020 10:03 am EST

Focus: MARKETS

Trevor Smith

Commodity Trading Advisor, www.trevorsmithfnp.com

Trending market math prevails through next week’s market ranges, reports Trevor Smith.

The ishares Russel 2000 ETF (IWM) continues to lead world markets in that it broke below the 20-day moving average before falling straight to the 50-day moving average. The Vanguard Total World Stock Market ETF (VT) barely approached its 20-day moving average so far. Weak market internals continue their weeks-long effects on many technical charts, however when considering the bear stories of differing intensity that these two symbols portray.

I expect pandemic news or a combination of negative pandemic news and either environmental news or political conflict news events to spark the trending breakouts, based on current market math.

Last week’s report, “Mixed Markets, Holiday Breakouts”  described this week’s markets; I also predicted the ”euro (bear) and Japanese yen (bull) start their pivots breakouts before the July 9 mild escapes of last week’s ranges. My euro direction was wrong, as both currencies printed higher breakout highs, albeit with continued, orderly bearish candlesticks. Finally, five of 10 ranges printed as of Thursday with other ranges extremely close.

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3181-3162; Low Range 3089-3077 (outlier 3047)
Neutral-bearish range. Weak market internals, Russel index takes out lows. Buy a put spread if a believer of the bear story

Japanese Yen
High Range 9362-9348; Low Range 9307-9285
Bearish range due to candlesticks in low volatility but sideways tendency for next week. Sell call spread for sideways-pricing time decay or join breakout either direction.

Euro FX
High Range 1.136-1.134; Low Range 1.127-1.124
Bearish weekly range; bearish candlestick patterns on daily and weekly charts. Hold short monthly call spreads, if able.

Gold
High Range $1831-$1816; Low Range $1794-$1782
Neutral-bearish range based on daily chart’s negative divergence in understudy oscillators.

Crude Oil
High Range $41.23-40.18; Low Range $39.03-38.63
Neutral-bearish range. Weekly chart bearish to $35 for next two to four weeks. Quarterly chart bullish targets at $51 for Fall. Weather/ environmental event may reduce supply & raise land or at-sea oil prices..

Last Week’s Predicted Ranges (Thursday Night)

E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3200-3170’ Low Range 3060-3061 (outlier 2933)
Buy 3100/3105 weekly put spread ahead of pullback or sell Iron Condor w/ Deltas near 0.25 strikes or sell put spread near actual week’s lows on down move into low range.
Actual: 3184-3095

Japanese Yen
High Range 9367-9327; Low Range 9275-9247
9290 trade target printed. Daily chart is bullish. Yen breakout starts Friday to Friday.
Actual: 9345-9283

Euro FX
High Range 1.135-1.129; Low Range 1.122-1.117
Bearish weekly range; Weekly, Daily-charts inverted hammer candlesticks. Sell weekly or monthly call spreads. 
Actual: 1.138-1.123

Gold
High Range $1807-$1795; Low Range $1760-$174970
Neutral-bearish range based on daily chart. Short a call spread in the weekly toward $1770 if on Friday to Monday highs from narrow range, trending pivots, candle signal rejecting extreme high valuation.
Actual: $1829-$1766

Crude Oil
High Range $41.95-$41.05; Low Range $38.91-$38.27
Weekly chart sell signals to $35 for next two to four weeks. Quarterly chart bullish targets are at $51 for Fall; $26 support is a Fibonacci level. Weather/environmental event should reduce supply & raise land or at-sea oil prices.
Actual: $41.08-$39.46

Trevor Smith is a technical market analyst/forecaster who is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor. Trevor holds four academic degrees across several disciplines and has published works in: Nashville Lifestyles Magazine, The Colorado Daily, The Tennessean/USA Today, Vitamin Retailer, and other media. You can view “Trevor’s Trading” here.

Note: Range calculations this week were made Wednesday evening. Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.

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